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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz0.24+2.92vs Predicted
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2University of California at Irvine-0.80+4.86vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.94+4.60vs Predicted
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4University of California at Irvine-0.88+3.06vs Predicted
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5Arizona State University-0.52+1.16vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz-0.19-1.26vs Predicted
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7Arizona State University-1.21+2.01vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.48+0.89vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-1.10-1.13vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis-1.41-1.12vs Predicted
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11University of California at Irvine-1.81-0.67vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-1.68-1.96vs Predicted
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13California State University Monterey Bay-2.07-2.01vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.72-4.21vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands-0.72-7.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.92University of California at Santa Cruz0.2420.3%1st Place
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6.86University of California at Irvine-0.807.7%1st Place
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7.6Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.946.7%1st Place
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7.06University of California at Irvine-0.886.4%1st Place
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6.16Arizona State University-0.529.9%1st Place
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4.74University of California at Santa Cruz-0.1915.1%1st Place
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9.01Arizona State University-1.214.5%1st Place
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8.89Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.484.3%1st Place
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7.87University of California at San Diego-1.104.5%1st Place
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8.88University of California at Davis-1.414.2%1st Place
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10.33University of California at Irvine-1.812.8%1st Place
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10.04University of California at San Diego-1.683.1%1st Place
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10.99California State University Monterey Bay-2.072.1%1st Place
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9.79Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.723.1%1st Place
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7.85California State University Channel Islands-0.725.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Holguin | 20.3% | 17.8% | 15.1% | 12.5% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Emma Feasey | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.6% |
| Nathan Briar | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 2.9% |
| Nejan Gunawardena | 6.4% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% |
| Andrew Down | 9.9% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Sophia Meyers | 15.1% | 13.4% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| William Bailly | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.4% |
| Colin Thompson | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.8% |
| Laurence Mach | 4.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 2.5% |
| Juliette Cramer | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% |
| Ryan Gedminas | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 12.7% | 17.1% |
| Grace Richie | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 14.1% |
| Daniel Haberland | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 13.4% | 23.5% |
| Dylan Tran | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 12.2% |
| Kevin Gates | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.