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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz-0.19+3.67vs Predicted
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2Arizona State University-0.52+4.05vs Predicted
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3University of California at Irvine-0.80+3.77vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz0.24-0.03vs Predicted
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5Arizona State University-1.21+3.79vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine-0.88+1.02vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-1.10+0.65vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.94-0.34vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-1.68+1.02vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.48-1.01vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-1.41-2.29vs Predicted
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12California State University Monterey Bay-2.07-1.12vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine-1.81-2.99vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.72-4.33vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands-1.54-5.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.67University of California at Santa Cruz-0.1915.2%1st Place
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6.05Arizona State University-0.527.8%1st Place
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6.77University of California at Irvine-0.807.0%1st Place
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3.97University of California at Santa Cruz0.2419.8%1st Place
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8.79Arizona State University-1.214.7%1st Place
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7.02University of California at Irvine-0.887.4%1st Place
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7.65University of California at San Diego-1.105.7%1st Place
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7.66Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.946.0%1st Place
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10.02University of California at San Diego-1.683.0%1st Place
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8.99Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.484.1%1st Place
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8.71University of California at Davis-1.414.8%1st Place
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10.88California State University Monterey Bay-2.072.4%1st Place
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10.01University of California at Irvine-1.813.8%1st Place
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9.67Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.724.1%1st Place
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9.13California State University Channel Islands-1.544.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia Meyers | 15.2% | 13.8% | 13.6% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Andrew Down | 7.8% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| Emma Feasey | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Hunter Holguin | 19.8% | 17.9% | 15.8% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Bailly | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.1% |
| Nejan Gunawardena | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.6% |
| Laurence Mach | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.5% |
| Nathan Briar | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.9% |
| Grace Richie | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 11.6% | 12.2% | 13.0% |
| Colin Thompson | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.0% |
| Juliette Cramer | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.9% |
| Daniel Haberland | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 14.0% | 22.2% |
| Ryan Gedminas | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 14.9% |
| Dylan Tran | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 11.9% |
| Brent Lin | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 8.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.