Race 4A

33rd-captain-hurst-bowl

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Thomas Sitzmann 21.2% 17.8% 14.9% 11.1% 11.1% 6.8% 4.9% 3.7% 4.3% 2.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1%
Leyton Borcherding 5.6% 6.8% 6.7% 7.1% 7.5% 8.4% 8.3% 6.0% 8.7% 8.3% 6.2% 6.1% 5.7% 5.1% 3.5%
Skylor Sweet 3.3% 3.0% 3.5% 3.8% 3.3% 5.4% 4.7% 6.4% 6.1% 6.9% 7.4% 7.3% 11.5% 13.1% 14.3%
Kerem Erkmen 14.6% 15.9% 12.5% 11.2% 10.3% 7.9% 7.8% 6.3% 4.6% 3.8% 2.2% 1.4% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1%
Christian Cushman 2.0% 2.5% 2.8% 2.2% 3.3% 3.5% 4.2% 4.4% 4.7% 5.7% 5.5% 7.5% 9.9% 13.6% 28.2%
Noah Robitshek 2.6% 3.9% 3.5% 4.3% 3.6% 4.5% 6.3% 5.9% 5.3% 7.5% 8.9% 10.4% 10.1% 12.0% 11.2%
Robert Ulmer 8.0% 5.5% 6.0% 7.4% 7.6% 8.2% 7.7% 9.7% 5.9% 8.2% 7.8% 6.3% 5.3% 4.0% 2.4%
Adrian Winkelman 4.7% 4.3% 5.8% 4.9% 6.1% 5.4% 5.2% 7.6% 8.3% 6.6% 9.0% 8.9% 7.8% 8.3% 7.1%
Audrey Foley 3.6% 4.1% 4.0% 4.2% 5.4% 6.4% 7.7% 6.0% 7.3% 8.2% 7.9% 9.1% 8.6% 10.3% 7.2%
Sam Bonauto 6.0% 5.9% 7.7% 8.5% 9.3% 6.3% 8.5% 8.4% 8.7% 7.5% 7.0% 5.5% 5.5% 3.1% 2.1%
Mathieu Dale 5.8% 6.6% 7.6% 7.8% 7.6% 8.3% 8.0% 7.3% 7.4% 6.0% 6.9% 8.0% 5.6% 4.0% 3.1%
Shea Smith 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 4.4% 5.3% 6.9% 6.4% 6.2% 7.5% 7.2% 8.6% 8.1% 10.2% 9.5% 9.4%
Ian Hopkins Guerra 5.0% 5.4% 6.3% 7.2% 4.6% 7.9% 6.6% 6.7% 7.5% 8.4% 10.7% 8.0% 7.1% 5.2% 3.4%
William Michels 10.1% 9.8% 10.1% 11.3% 9.7% 8.0% 8.2% 8.6% 7.1% 5.3% 3.8% 4.1% 2.2% 1.2% 0.5%
Bradley Whiteway 3.9% 5.1% 5.3% 4.6% 5.3% 6.1% 5.5% 6.8% 6.6% 8.3% 7.5% 8.8% 9.2% 9.6% 7.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.