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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island3.23+3.67vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.72+4.12vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.26+4.79vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College1.59+6.11vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.29+2.85vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.53-2.14vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.38+0.38vs Predicted
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8Boston University1.69+1.91vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University2.00-0.31vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36-2.39vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.45-3.84vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.90-2.61vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93-3.73vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont1.27-2.88vs Predicted
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15Yale University1.90-5.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.67University of Rhode Island3.230.2%1st Place
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6.12Dartmouth College2.720.1%1st Place
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7.79Boston College2.260.1%1st Place
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10.11Connecticut College1.590.0%1st Place
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7.85Brown University2.290.1%1st Place
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3.86Stanford University3.530.2%1st Place
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7.38Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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9.91Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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8.69Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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7.61Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.1%1st Place
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7.16Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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9.39Tufts University1.900.0%1st Place
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9.27U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.0%1st Place
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11.12University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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9.08Yale University1.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerem Erkmen | 15.2% | 16.5% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 8.4% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Ian Hopkins Guerra | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 2.9% |
| Skylor Sweet | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 16.5% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.4% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 19.8% | 17.8% | 15.8% | 13.9% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mathieu Dale | 8.4% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.3% |
| Noah Robitshek | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 11.5% | 12.2% | 12.9% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 5.6% |
| Robert Ulmer | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 2.5% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.0% |
| Shea Smith | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 11.4% | 8.6% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.8% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.1% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 14.7% | 24.9% |
| Audrey Foley | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 7.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.