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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.29+6.67vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.53+1.78vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.72+3.17vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.38+3.45vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36+2.60vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93+3.09vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island3.23-2.28vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College1.59+2.14vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.45-1.91vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.00-1.15vs Predicted
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11Boston University1.69-1.15vs Predicted
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12Boston College2.26-3.90vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont1.27-1.66vs Predicted
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14Yale University1.90-4.94vs Predicted
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15Tufts University1.90-5.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.67Brown University2.290.1%1st Place
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3.78Stanford University3.530.2%1st Place
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6.17Dartmouth College2.720.1%1st Place
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7.45Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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7.6Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.1%1st Place
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9.09U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.0%1st Place
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4.72University of Rhode Island3.230.2%1st Place
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10.14Connecticut College1.590.0%1st Place
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7.09Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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8.85Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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9.85Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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8.1Boston College2.260.0%1st Place
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11.34University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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9.06Yale University1.900.0%1st Place
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9.07Tufts University1.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leyton Borcherding | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.5% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 22.7% | 18.9% | 14.2% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 8.7% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 7.2% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| Mathieu Dale | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 2.8% |
| Robert Ulmer | 5.8% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.1% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 6.8% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 15.1% | 13.7% | 12.9% | 13.3% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Skylor Sweet | 3.4% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 13.4% | 14.2% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.0% | 5.6% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 1.5% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 14.0% |
| Ian Hopkins Guerra | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 3.1% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 15.4% | 27.9% |
| Audrey Foley | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 8.4% |
| Shea Smith | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 7.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.