Race 8A

33rd-captain-hurst-bowl

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Kerem Erkmen 15.3% 16.4% 14.2% 11.7% 9.0% 7.7% 7.7% 5.4% 4.7% 3.4% 2.0% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1%
Thomas Sitzmann 22.4% 18.6% 14.1% 14.1% 10.2% 7.1% 4.8% 3.1% 3.0% 0.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Ryan Satterberg 8.6% 10.9% 9.1% 9.9% 9.7% 7.4% 9.4% 7.9% 8.6% 6.3% 3.8% 4.4% 3.1% 0.9%
Robert Ulmer 5.4% 6.9% 8.5% 6.6% 7.9% 7.8% 9.9% 8.2% 7.3% 8.3% 8.4% 5.7% 5.7% 3.4%
Shea Smith 3.4% 3.7% 5.1% 5.5% 5.8% 6.8% 5.9% 7.2% 7.5% 7.8% 8.9% 9.8% 11.9% 10.7%
Ian Hopkins Guerra 5.7% 5.5% 6.1% 5.9% 8.4% 7.5% 9.0% 8.2% 7.7% 8.2% 8.6% 6.6% 7.2% 5.4%
Bradley Whiteway 4.8% 5.3% 5.0% 5.7% 5.5% 7.4% 5.7% 7.6% 9.1% 6.5% 9.8% 10.6% 8.8% 8.2%
Adrian Winkelman 4.6% 4.9% 6.5% 5.8% 5.9% 6.8% 6.1% 6.6% 7.8% 8.7% 8.4% 9.7% 9.7% 8.5%
Leyton Borcherding 6.3% 5.2% 6.0% 6.8% 6.4% 8.2% 9.0% 10.5% 7.7% 7.9% 9.2% 7.3% 5.2% 4.3%
Mathieu Dale 6.1% 6.3% 7.3% 8.3% 8.7% 8.3% 6.8% 8.0% 7.9% 10.3% 7.6% 6.5% 5.3% 2.6%
Noah Robitshek 3.5% 2.9% 3.5% 3.9% 5.1% 5.4% 5.6% 6.8% 6.2% 7.7% 8.1% 13.1% 13.4% 14.8%
Audrey Foley 4.0% 3.6% 3.5% 5.1% 6.9% 5.8% 7.6% 6.9% 8.2% 10.5% 7.7% 9.3% 9.6% 11.3%
Christian Cushman 3.0% 2.3% 2.0% 3.2% 2.5% 3.8% 3.7% 5.4% 5.5% 6.8% 8.6% 9.5% 16.0% 27.7%
Sam Bonauto 6.9% 7.5% 9.1% 7.5% 8.0% 10.0% 8.8% 8.2% 8.8% 6.7% 7.8% 5.4% 3.2% 2.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.