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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.62+8.95vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+6.75vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont3.33+8.28vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+4.72vs Predicted
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5Yale University4.55+0.99vs Predicted
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6Washington College3.65+3.75vs Predicted
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7Brown University3.98+1.32vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.73+5.22vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin4.10-1.25vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46+0.77vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University4.51-4.66vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University4.01-3.48vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College4.15-5.50vs Predicted
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14College of Charleston4.00-6.07vs Predicted
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15Cornell University3.27-3.76vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University3.47-5.44vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College3.55-6.78vs Predicted
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18Eckerd College2.43-3.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.95Dartmouth College3.620.0%1st Place
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8.75St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.0%1st Place
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11.28University of Vermont3.330.0%1st Place
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8.72Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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5.99Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
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9.75Washington College3.650.0%1st Place
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8.32Brown University3.980.1%1st Place
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13.22Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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7.75University of Wisconsin4.100.1%1st Place
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10.77U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.0%1st Place
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6.34Georgetown University4.510.1%1st Place
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8.52Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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7.5SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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7.93College of Charleston4.000.1%1st Place
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11.24Cornell University3.270.0%1st Place
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10.56Roger Williams University3.470.0%1st Place
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10.22Connecticut College3.550.0%1st Place
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14.18Eckerd College2.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernie Roesler | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.0% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 1.2% |
| Joseph Kelleher | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 6.4% |
| Austen Anderson | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 1.8% |
| Graham Landy | 13.2% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Michael Whitford | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 3.6% |
| Colin Smith | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.4% |
| Alexander Sachs | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 11.0% | 14.9% | 21.8% |
| Joseph Kutschenreuter | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Daniel Liberty | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 5.1% |
| Sydney Bolger | 10.7% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Dillon Paiva | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 1.0% |
| Shawn Murray | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Samuel Stokes | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% |
| Philip Alley | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 8.1% |
| Connor Needham | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 4.9% |
| IG Schottlaender | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 4.6% |
| Walker Banks | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 33.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.