← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Boston College2.26+6.71vs Predicted
-
2Stanford University3.53+1.79vs Predicted
-
3Dartmouth College2.72+3.22vs Predicted
-
4Roger Williams University2.38+3.43vs Predicted
-
5Tufts University1.90+4.17vs Predicted
-
6University of Rhode Island3.23-1.30vs Predicted
-
7Yale University1.90+2.07vs Predicted
-
8Brown University2.29-0.20vs Predicted
-
9Connecticut College1.59+1.13vs Predicted
-
10University of Vermont1.27+1.21vs Predicted
-
11Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36-3.46vs Predicted
-
12Boston University1.69-1.90vs Predicted
-
13U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93-3.69vs Predicted
-
14Northeastern University2.00-5.30vs Predicted
-
15Bowdoin College2.45-7.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.71Boston College2.260.1%1st Place
-
3.79Stanford University3.530.2%1st Place
-
6.22Dartmouth College2.720.1%1st Place
-
7.43Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
-
9.17Tufts University1.900.0%1st Place
-
4.7University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
-
9.07Yale University1.900.1%1st Place
-
7.8Brown University2.290.1%1st Place
-
10.13Connecticut College1.590.0%1st Place
-
11.21University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
-
7.54Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.1%1st Place
-
10.1Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
-
9.31U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.0%1st Place
-
8.7Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
-
7.12Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Hopkins Guerra | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 22.2% | 17.2% | 15.7% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 8.4% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% |
| Mathieu Dale | 6.1% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.7% |
| Shea Smith | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 14.1% | 14.2% | 13.4% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Audrey Foley | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 7.8% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.6% |
| Skylor Sweet | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 14.8% |
| Christian Cushman | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 11.2% | 14.4% | 25.3% |
| Robert Ulmer | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 3.6% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 13.4% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 8.4% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.8% |
| Sam Bonauto | 6.8% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 1.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.