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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.38+6.30vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.45+4.94vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.82+2.80vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island3.23+0.72vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.53-1.03vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.29+1.75vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University2.00+1.66vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36-0.61vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.26-1.23vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College1.23+1.28vs Predicted
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11Yale University1.90-1.92vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93-2.79vs Predicted
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13Tufts University1.90-3.67vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.69-4.25vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont1.27-3.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.3Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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6.94Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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5.8Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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4.72University of Rhode Island3.230.2%1st Place
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3.97Stanford University3.530.2%1st Place
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7.75Brown University2.290.1%1st Place
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8.66Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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7.39Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.1%1st Place
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7.77Boston College2.260.1%1st Place
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11.28Connecticut College1.230.0%1st Place
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9.08Yale University1.900.0%1st Place
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9.21U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.0%1st Place
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9.33Tufts University1.900.0%1st Place
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9.75Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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11.06University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathieu Dale | 7.2% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% |
| Sam Bonauto | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| William Michels | 9.2% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 16.5% | 13.8% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 21.4% | 15.4% | 14.1% | 13.4% | 10.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 2.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.8% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 5.5% |
| Robert Ulmer | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 1.9% |
| Ian Hopkins Guerra | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| William Hurd | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 14.9% | 26.0% |
| Audrey Foley | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 8.0% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 7.1% |
| Shea Smith | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 7.9% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 10.9% |
| Christian Cushman | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 15.0% | 24.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.