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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz-0.19+3.80vs Predicted
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2Arizona State University-0.52+3.90vs Predicted
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3University of California at Davis-1.41+5.69vs Predicted
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4University of California at Irvine-0.80+2.68vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz0.24-1.22vs Predicted
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6Arizona State University-1.21+2.88vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-1.68+2.77vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.21-0.07vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.48-0.11vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-1.10-2.23vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay-2.070.00vs Predicted
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12University of California at Irvine-0.88-5.15vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.72-3.23vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-1.81-3.96vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands-1.54-5.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.8University of California at Santa Cruz-0.1913.9%1st Place
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5.9Arizona State University-0.529.8%1st Place
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8.69University of California at Davis-1.414.7%1st Place
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6.68University of California at Irvine-0.808.2%1st Place
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3.78University of California at Santa Cruz0.2420.5%1st Place
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8.88Arizona State University-1.214.3%1st Place
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9.77University of California at San Diego-1.684.0%1st Place
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7.93Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.215.4%1st Place
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8.89Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.483.6%1st Place
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7.77University of California at San Diego-1.105.7%1st Place
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11.0California State University Monterey Bay-2.072.1%1st Place
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6.85University of California at Irvine-0.887.2%1st Place
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9.77Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.723.5%1st Place
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10.04University of California at Irvine-1.812.7%1st Place
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9.22California State University Channel Islands-1.544.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia Meyers | 13.9% | 13.9% | 12.4% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Down | 9.8% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| Juliette Cramer | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% |
| Emma Feasey | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.6% |
| Hunter Holguin | 20.5% | 17.8% | 16.4% | 12.3% | 10.4% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Bailly | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.0% |
| Grace Richie | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 13.5% |
| lucas kaemmerer | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.1% |
| Colin Thompson | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.1% |
| Laurence Mach | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 2.5% |
| Daniel Haberland | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 15.2% | 23.2% |
| Nejan Gunawardena | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Dylan Tran | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 12.4% |
| Ryan Gedminas | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 13.6% |
| Brent Lin | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 9.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.