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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz0.24+2.96vs Predicted
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2Arizona State University-1.21+6.99vs Predicted
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3Arizona State University-0.52+3.07vs Predicted
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4University of California at Davis-1.41+4.69vs Predicted
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5University of California at Irvine-0.88+1.94vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz-0.19-1.32vs Predicted
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7University of California at Irvine-0.80-0.30vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.21-0.06vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-1.10-1.30vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-1.68-0.13vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.48-2.17vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.72-2.32vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine-1.81-2.93vs Predicted
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14California State University Monterey Bay-2.07-3.30vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands-1.54-5.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.96University of California at Santa Cruz0.2420.9%1st Place
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8.99Arizona State University-1.214.3%1st Place
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6.07Arizona State University-0.529.6%1st Place
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8.69University of California at Davis-1.414.7%1st Place
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6.94University of California at Irvine-0.887.0%1st Place
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4.68University of California at Santa Cruz-0.1915.9%1st Place
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6.7University of California at Irvine-0.807.8%1st Place
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7.94Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.215.5%1st Place
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7.7University of California at San Diego-1.106.2%1st Place
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9.87University of California at San Diego-1.682.7%1st Place
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8.83Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.483.8%1st Place
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9.68Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.722.9%1st Place
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10.07University of California at Irvine-1.813.2%1st Place
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10.7California State University Monterey Bay-2.072.0%1st Place
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9.2California State University Channel Islands-1.543.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Holguin | 20.9% | 17.0% | 14.6% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Bailly | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 6.8% |
| Andrew Down | 9.6% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Juliette Cramer | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% |
| Nejan Gunawardena | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Sophia Meyers | 15.9% | 15.0% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Emma Feasey | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% |
| lucas kaemmerer | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 2.8% |
| Laurence Mach | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.2% |
| Grace Richie | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 13.2% |
| Colin Thompson | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.0% |
| Dylan Tran | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 12.5% |
| Ryan Gedminas | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 15.0% |
| Daniel Haberland | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 14.1% | 20.3% |
| Brent Lin | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.