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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz0.24+2.92vs Predicted
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2University of California at Irvine-0.88+4.96vs Predicted
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3University of California at Davis-1.41+5.70vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.94+3.57vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz-0.19-0.15vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego-1.10+1.69vs Predicted
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7University of California at Irvine-0.80-0.15vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-1.68+1.96vs Predicted
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9University of California at Irvine-1.81+1.07vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University-1.21-1.27vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University-0.52-5.08vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.48-3.26vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.72-3.21vs Predicted
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14California State University Channel Islands-1.54-4.70vs Predicted
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15California State University Monterey Bay-2.07-4.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.92University of California at Santa Cruz0.2420.3%1st Place
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6.96University of California at Irvine-0.887.4%1st Place
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8.7University of California at Davis-1.414.6%1st Place
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7.57Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.946.3%1st Place
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4.85University of California at Santa Cruz-0.1913.5%1st Place
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7.69University of California at San Diego-1.107.0%1st Place
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6.85University of California at Irvine-0.807.6%1st Place
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9.96University of California at San Diego-1.682.2%1st Place
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10.07University of California at Irvine-1.813.3%1st Place
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8.73Arizona State University-1.214.3%1st Place
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5.92Arizona State University-0.5210.0%1st Place
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8.74Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.484.0%1st Place
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9.79Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.723.3%1st Place
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9.3California State University Channel Islands-1.544.0%1st Place
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10.96California State University Monterey Bay-2.072.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Holguin | 20.3% | 18.6% | 14.1% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nejan Gunawardena | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.6% |
| Juliette Cramer | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 6.2% |
| Nathan Briar | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.4% |
| Sophia Meyers | 13.5% | 13.1% | 13.2% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Laurence Mach | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 2.6% |
| Emma Feasey | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Grace Richie | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 13.5% | 13.4% |
| Ryan Gedminas | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 15.0% |
| William Bailly | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.2% |
| Andrew Down | 10.0% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Colin Thompson | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% |
| Dylan Tran | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 12.4% |
| Brent Lin | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 8.5% |
| Daniel Haberland | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 13.6% | 22.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.