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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.92+3.26vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California1.89+2.15vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego0.95+3.72vs Predicted
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4California State University Channel Islands0.82+3.01vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California0.20+3.86vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine0.43+2.22vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California1.40-2.25vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27+1.83vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz0.76-1.81vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45-4.96vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis0.07-2.57vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-3.97vs Predicted
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13Arizona State University-0.41-1.97vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-0.51-2.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.26California Poly Maritime Academy1.9215.8%1st Place
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4.15University of Southern California1.8917.7%1st Place
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6.72University of California at San Diego0.955.5%1st Place
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7.01California State University Channel Islands0.826.2%1st Place
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8.86University of Southern California0.203.6%1st Place
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8.22University of California at Irvine0.434.0%1st Place
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4.75University of Southern California1.4013.8%1st Place
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9.83Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.272.3%1st Place
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7.19University of California at Santa Cruz0.765.8%1st Place
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5.04Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.4513.7%1st Place
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8.43University of California at Davis0.074.2%1st Place
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8.03University of California at Santa Cruz0.864.5%1st Place
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11.03Arizona State University-0.411.8%1st Place
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11.46University of California at San Diego-0.510.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Mueller | 15.8% | 16.1% | 14.5% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Davis Winsor | 17.7% | 16.2% | 14.6% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Brendan O'Connor | 5.5% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| Sterling Maggard | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.5% |
| Jackson McKinley | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 7.2% |
| Adam Leddy | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 3.5% |
| Luke Harris | 13.8% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 13.2% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Groom | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 13.6% | 15.2% | 13.2% |
| Andrew Ring | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 1.7% |
| Garrett Henderson | 13.7% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Braedon Hansen | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 4.2% |
| Blake Roberts | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 3.1% |
| Mitchell Powers | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 12.4% | 20.0% | 28.0% |
| Andrew Keller | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 11.7% | 17.2% | 36.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.