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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz0.24+2.81vs Predicted
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2Arizona State University-1.21+6.90vs Predicted
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3University of California at Irvine-0.88+3.86vs Predicted
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4Arizona State University-0.52+1.90vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.48+3.77vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.72+3.82vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-1.10+0.87vs Predicted
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8University of California at Irvine-0.80-1.19vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz-0.19-4.10vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis-1.41-1.25vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-1.68-1.12vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.21-4.10vs Predicted
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13California State University Monterey Bay-2.07-2.09vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-1.81-4.06vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands-1.54-6.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.81University of California at Santa Cruz0.2422.6%1st Place
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8.9Arizona State University-1.213.5%1st Place
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6.86University of California at Irvine-0.887.5%1st Place
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5.9Arizona State University-0.5210.1%1st Place
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8.77Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.484.0%1st Place
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9.82Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.723.5%1st Place
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7.87University of California at San Diego-1.105.3%1st Place
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6.81University of California at Irvine-0.808.2%1st Place
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4.9University of California at Santa Cruz-0.1914.6%1st Place
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8.75University of California at Davis-1.413.5%1st Place
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9.88University of California at San Diego-1.682.7%1st Place
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7.9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.215.1%1st Place
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10.91California State University Monterey Bay-2.072.1%1st Place
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9.94University of California at Irvine-1.813.1%1st Place
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8.97California State University Channel Islands-1.544.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Holguin | 22.6% | 17.6% | 14.2% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| William Bailly | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% |
| Nejan Gunawardena | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.6% |
| Andrew Down | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Colin Thompson | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 5.9% |
| Dylan Tran | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 12.4% |
| Laurence Mach | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 3.6% |
| Emma Feasey | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Sophia Meyers | 14.6% | 13.7% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Juliette Cramer | 3.5% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.2% |
| Grace Richie | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 13.6% |
| lucas kaemmerer | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 3.0% |
| Daniel Haberland | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 13.4% | 23.7% |
| Ryan Gedminas | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 12.4% | 13.6% |
| Brent Lin | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.