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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.47+6.60vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.29+2.76vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.79+3.40vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.54+3.06vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+2.64vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+6.66vs Predicted
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7Harvard University2.87-1.07vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.01+1.06vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.32-1.15vs Predicted
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10Tulane University2.08-0.85vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan1.64-0.35vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.39-0.27vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University2.38-5.37vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.14-1.95vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College0.37-0.28vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34-8.07vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University1.24-4.84vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-0.28-1.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.6University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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4.76Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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6.4Stanford University2.790.1%1st Place
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7.06U. S. Naval Academy2.540.1%1st Place
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7.64Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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12.66U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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5.93Harvard University2.870.1%1st Place
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9.06Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
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7.85Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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9.15Tulane University2.080.1%1st Place
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10.65University of Michigan1.640.0%1st Place
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11.73George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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7.63Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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12.05U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.140.0%1st Place
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14.72SUNY Maritime College0.370.0%1st Place
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7.93St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.1%1st Place
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12.16Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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16.02University of California at Los Angeles-0.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson McAliley | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Stephan Baker | 12.9% | 15.8% | 13.9% | 12.1% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reade Decker | 9.3% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Henry Allgeier | 8.4% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Reed McAllister | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 12.9% | 8.2% |
| Robby Meek | 11.5% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Thress | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Sophia Devling | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Matheo Graham-capasso | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Braden Vogel | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 2.2% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 12.4% | 9.2% | 3.5% |
| Oliver Stokke | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| David Vinogradov | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 12.9% | 11.2% | 5.1% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 12.0% | 25.3% | 22.4% |
| Nathan Jensen | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Diogo Silva | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 11.8% | 14.6% | 10.6% | 4.3% |
| David Spector | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 16.8% | 52.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.