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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.29+3.85vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.54+5.39vs Predicted
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3Harvard University2.87+3.13vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+8.49vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.32+2.95vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+1.77vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.38+0.81vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.24+4.03vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34-1.09vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan1.64+0.86vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.47-3.43vs Predicted
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12Tulane University2.42-4.06vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.01-3.93vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.37+0.55vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-0.28+1.21vs Predicted
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16U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.14-3.45vs Predicted
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17Stanford University2.79-10.58vs Predicted
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18George Washington University1.39-6.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.85Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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7.39U. S. Naval Academy2.540.1%1st Place
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6.13Harvard University2.870.1%1st Place
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12.49U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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7.95Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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7.77Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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7.81Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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12.03Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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7.91St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.1%1st Place
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10.86University of Michigan1.640.0%1st Place
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7.57University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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7.94Tulane University2.420.1%1st Place
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9.07Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
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14.55SUNY Maritime College0.370.0%1st Place
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16.21University of California at Los Angeles-0.280.0%1st Place
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12.55U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.140.0%1st Place
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6.42Stanford University2.790.1%1st Place
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11.48George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 14.8% | 14.7% | 13.3% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Henry Allgeier | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Robby Meek | 9.5% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 13.0% | 14.7% | 6.3% |
| Sophia Devling | 6.0% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 7.1% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Diogo Silva | 2.7% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 13.4% | 10.3% | 5.0% |
| Nathan Jensen | 5.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Braden Vogel | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 1.6% |
| Jackson McAliley | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Zander King | 6.4% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Lucas Thress | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.5% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 12.7% | 24.9% | 21.5% |
| David Spector | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 15.9% | 53.9% |
| David Vinogradov | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 15.2% | 12.4% | 6.5% |
| Reade Decker | 10.6% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 3.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.