← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1California Poly Maritime Academy1.92+3.27vs Predicted
-
2University of Southern California1.40+2.80vs Predicted
-
3University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+4.94vs Predicted
-
4University of California at Santa Cruz0.76+3.23vs Predicted
-
5California State University Channel Islands0.82+1.89vs Predicted
-
6University of Southern California1.89-2.00vs Predicted
-
7University of California at San Diego0.95-0.25vs Predicted
-
8Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45-2.95vs Predicted
-
9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27+0.99vs Predicted
-
10University of Southern California0.20-1.18vs Predicted
-
11University of California at Davis0.07-2.46vs Predicted
-
12University of California at Irvine0.43-3.71vs Predicted
-
13Arizona State University-0.41-2.02vs Predicted
-
14University of California at San Diego-0.51-2.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.27California Poly Maritime Academy1.9217.1%1st Place
-
4.8University of Southern California1.4013.6%1st Place
-
7.94University of California at Santa Cruz0.864.1%1st Place
-
7.23University of California at Santa Cruz0.765.6%1st Place
-
6.89California State University Channel Islands0.826.7%1st Place
-
4.0University of Southern California1.8918.3%1st Place
-
6.75University of California at San Diego0.956.6%1st Place
-
5.05Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.4511.6%1st Place
-
9.99Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.271.7%1st Place
-
8.82University of Southern California0.203.5%1st Place
-
8.54University of California at Davis0.074.8%1st Place
-
8.29University of California at Irvine0.433.4%1st Place
-
10.98Arizona State University-0.411.5%1st Place
-
11.46University of California at San Diego-0.511.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Mueller | 17.1% | 14.8% | 12.9% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luke Harris | 13.6% | 12.0% | 13.9% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Blake Roberts | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 3.6% |
| Andrew Ring | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 1.7% |
| Sterling Maggard | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 1.4% |
| Davis Winsor | 18.3% | 17.4% | 14.9% | 12.5% | 11.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brendan O'Connor | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Garrett Henderson | 11.6% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 13.1% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Samuel Groom | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 13.8% | 15.5% | 14.1% |
| Jackson McKinley | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 6.2% |
| Braedon Hansen | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 6.0% |
| Adam Leddy | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 4.5% |
| Mitchell Powers | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 19.3% | 26.6% |
| Andrew Keller | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 12.4% | 18.2% | 34.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.