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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.29+3.79vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.47+5.49vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.54+4.23vs Predicted
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4George Washington University1.39+7.23vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.08+3.72vs Predicted
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6University of Michigan1.64+4.43vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.38+0.64vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.01+1.03vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College-0.02+6.60vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.24+2.13vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-3.20vs Predicted
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12Harvard University2.87-5.79vs Predicted
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13Stanford University2.79-6.90vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.05-1.68vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-0.28+1.00vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34-8.13vs Predicted
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17Cornell University2.32-8.99vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07-5.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.79Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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7.49University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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7.23U. S. Naval Academy2.540.1%1st Place
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11.23George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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8.72Tulane University2.080.1%1st Place
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10.43University of Michigan1.640.0%1st Place
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7.64Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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9.03Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
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15.6SUNY Maritime College-0.020.0%1st Place
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12.13Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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7.8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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6.21Harvard University2.870.1%1st Place
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6.1Stanford University2.790.1%1st Place
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12.32U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.050.0%1st Place
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16.0University of California at Los Angeles-0.280.0%1st Place
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7.87St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.1%1st Place
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8.01Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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12.4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 14.9% | 16.1% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jackson McAliley | 6.5% | 5.7% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Henry Allgeier | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 2.3% |
| Matheo Graham-capasso | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Braden Vogel | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 1.2% |
| Oliver Stokke | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Thress | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 11.3% | 25.9% | 34.7% |
| Diogo Silva | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 9.9% | 4.5% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.4% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Robby Meek | 10.9% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Reade Decker | 10.7% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Joey Richardson | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 12.1% | 13.6% | 11.7% | 5.3% |
| David Spector | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 20.6% | 45.5% |
| Nathan Jensen | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Sophia Devling | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 14.5% | 11.4% | 5.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.