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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.29+3.79vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+5.79vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.39+8.56vs Predicted
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4Harvard University2.87+1.89vs Predicted
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5Stanford University2.79+1.15vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.54+1.09vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.47+0.31vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34-0.29vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.38-1.35vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan1.64+0.69vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+1.60vs Predicted
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12Tulane University2.08-2.88vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.32-5.21vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.05-1.71vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.24-3.13vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College-0.02-0.45vs Predicted
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17Fordham University2.01-7.77vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-0.28-2.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.79Yale University3.290.2%1st Place
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7.79Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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11.56George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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5.89Harvard University2.870.1%1st Place
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6.15Stanford University2.790.1%1st Place
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7.09U. S. Naval Academy2.540.1%1st Place
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7.31University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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7.71St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.1%1st Place
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7.65Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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10.69University of Michigan1.640.0%1st Place
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12.6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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9.12Tulane University2.080.0%1st Place
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7.79Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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12.29U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.050.0%1st Place
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11.87Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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15.55SUNY Maritime College-0.020.0%1st Place
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9.23Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
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15.91University of California at Los Angeles-0.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 15.3% | 14.1% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 7.0% | 2.3% |
| Robby Meek | 11.4% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Reade Decker | 11.3% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Henry Allgeier | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Jackson McAliley | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Jensen | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Oliver Stokke | 5.3% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Braden Vogel | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 1.1% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 16.4% | 13.4% | 5.2% |
| Matheo Graham-capasso | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Sophia Devling | 7.2% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Joey Richardson | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 14.8% | 10.9% | 5.7% |
| Diogo Silva | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 4.2% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 6.5% | 12.9% | 25.9% | 33.6% |
| Lucas Thress | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| David Spector | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 8.9% | 20.7% | 46.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.