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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tulane University2.08+7.63vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+10.45vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.29+1.55vs Predicted
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4Stanford University2.79+1.82vs Predicted
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5Harvard University2.87+0.62vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+1.30vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.54-0.21vs Predicted
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8University of Michigan1.64+2.00vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.24+2.52vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.01-1.07vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.38-3.50vs Predicted
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12Cornell University0.85+1.22vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania2.47-6.14vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College-0.02+1.15vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34-7.52vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-0.28-0.11vs Predicted
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17George Washington University1.39-5.79vs Predicted
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18U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.05-5.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.63Tulane University2.080.0%1st Place
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12.45U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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4.55Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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5.82Stanford University2.790.1%1st Place
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5.62Harvard University2.870.1%1st Place
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7.3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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6.79U. S. Naval Academy2.540.1%1st Place
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10.0University of Michigan1.640.0%1st Place
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11.52Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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8.93Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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7.5Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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13.22Cornell University0.850.0%1st Place
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6.86University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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15.15SUNY Maritime College-0.020.0%1st Place
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7.48St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.1%1st Place
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15.89University of California at Los Angeles-0.280.0%1st Place
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11.21George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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12.06U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheo Graham-capasso | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Reed McAllister | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 11.0% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 4.7% |
| Stephan Baker | 14.8% | 15.1% | 14.2% | 12.3% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reade Decker | 11.3% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Robby Meek | 12.0% | 13.8% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 7.5% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Henry Allgeier | 7.9% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Braden Vogel | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 0.4% |
| Diogo Silva | 2.8% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 7.6% | 2.1% |
| Lucas Thress | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Oliver Stokke | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Maya Conway | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 13.9% | 15.8% | 10.4% |
| Jackson McAliley | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 13.3% | 21.8% | 29.8% |
| Nathan Jensen | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| David Spector | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 19.2% | 45.5% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 2.2% |
| Joey Richardson | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 9.3% | 3.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.