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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+6.31vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.54+4.78vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.47+3.98vs Predicted
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4Stanford University2.79+1.65vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.29-0.76vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34+1.22vs Predicted
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7Harvard University2.87-1.51vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.38-0.91vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.24+2.30vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan1.64+0.09vs Predicted
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11Tulane University2.08-2.63vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+0.19vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.14-1.48vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.39-3.49vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College-0.02+0.11vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-0.28-0.22vs Predicted
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17Fordham University0.81-4.13vs Predicted
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18Cornell University0.85-5.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.31Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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6.78U. S. Naval Academy2.540.1%1st Place
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6.98University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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5.65Stanford University2.790.1%1st Place
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4.24Yale University3.290.2%1st Place
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7.22St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.1%1st Place
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5.49Harvard University2.870.1%1st Place
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7.09Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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11.3Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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10.09University of Michigan1.640.0%1st Place
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8.37Tulane University2.080.1%1st Place
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12.19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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11.52U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.140.0%1st Place
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10.51George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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15.11SUNY Maritime College-0.020.0%1st Place
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15.78University of California at Los Angeles-0.280.0%1st Place
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12.87Fordham University0.810.0%1st Place
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12.51Cornell University0.850.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Henry Allgeier | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 11.5% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jackson McAliley | 7.3% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Reade Decker | 11.0% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Stephan Baker | 20.6% | 16.2% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Jensen | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Robby Meek | 11.3% | 12.9% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.9% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Diogo Silva | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 2.1% |
| Braden Vogel | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 0.8% |
| Matheo Graham-capasso | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Reed McAllister | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 4.6% |
| David Vinogradov | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 3.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 2.5% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 9.5% | 13.4% | 21.6% | 29.3% |
| David Spector | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 11.2% | 18.2% | 43.0% |
| James Owen | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 12.1% | 14.4% | 12.9% | 8.3% |
| Maya Conway | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 5.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.