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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Arizona State University-0.52+4.93vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz-0.19+2.83vs Predicted
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3Arizona State University-1.21+5.73vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz0.24-0.16vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.21+2.89vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine-0.80+0.75vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-1.10+0.72vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.48+0.92vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.72+0.76vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis-1.41-1.23vs Predicted
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11University of California at Irvine-1.81-0.88vs Predicted
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12California State University Monterey Bay-2.07-1.15vs Predicted
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13California State University Channel Islands-1.54-3.95vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.68-4.09vs Predicted
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15University of California at Irvine-0.88-8.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.93Arizona State University-0.5210.8%1st Place
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4.83University of California at Santa Cruz-0.1913.3%1st Place
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8.73Arizona State University-1.214.7%1st Place
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3.84University of California at Santa Cruz0.2421.3%1st Place
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7.89Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.215.9%1st Place
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6.75University of California at Irvine-0.807.6%1st Place
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7.72University of California at San Diego-1.106.2%1st Place
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8.92Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.484.2%1st Place
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9.76Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.723.3%1st Place
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8.77University of California at Davis-1.414.2%1st Place
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10.12University of California at Irvine-1.812.1%1st Place
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10.85California State University Monterey Bay-2.072.0%1st Place
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9.05California State University Channel Islands-1.543.9%1st Place
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9.91University of California at San Diego-1.683.0%1st Place
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6.92University of California at Irvine-0.887.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Down | 10.8% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Sophia Meyers | 13.3% | 14.3% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| William Bailly | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 6.6% |
| Hunter Holguin | 21.3% | 17.1% | 14.9% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| lucas kaemmerer | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.0% |
| Emma Feasey | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Laurence Mach | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 2.9% |
| Colin Thompson | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 7.0% |
| Dylan Tran | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 12.8% |
| Juliette Cramer | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.4% |
| Ryan Gedminas | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 14.1% |
| Daniel Haberland | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 22.4% |
| Brent Lin | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 9.2% |
| Grace Richie | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 12.9% |
| Nejan Gunawardena | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.