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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.20+5.33vs Predicted
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2Harvard University2.37+3.82vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.82+4.73vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.23+2.41vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23+1.14vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48+5.38vs Predicted
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8Stanford University2.55-2.65vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland1.00+1.39vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.08+0.41vs Predicted
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11Yale University2.77-6.39vs Predicted
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12George Washington University0.23+0.94vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.27-3.40vs Predicted
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14Tulane University2.32-7.86vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College-0.06-1.20vs Predicted
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16U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.60-7.55vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles0.52-4.88vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan-0.30-3.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.33U. S. Naval Academy2.200.1%1st Place
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5.82Harvard University2.370.1%1st Place
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7.73Cornell University1.820.1%1st Place
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6.41Roger Williams University2.230.1%1st Place
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6.14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.1%1st Place
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12.38U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.480.0%1st Place
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5.35Stanford University2.550.1%1st Place
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10.39St. Mary's College of Maryland1.000.0%1st Place
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10.41Old Dominion University1.080.0%1st Place
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4.61Yale University2.770.2%1st Place
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12.94George Washington University0.230.0%1st Place
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9.6Fordham University1.270.0%1st Place
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6.14Tulane University2.320.1%1st Place
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13.8SUNY Maritime College-0.060.0%1st Place
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8.45U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.600.0%1st Place
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12.12University of California at Los Angeles0.520.0%1st Place
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14.38University of Michigan-0.300.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen MacWilliams | 8.5% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Harrison Strom | 11.2% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Gilda Dondona | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Tristan McDonald | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| JJ Klempen | 9.8% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Calvin Marsh | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 14.4% | 14.6% | 9.1% |
| Lucas Woodworth | 11.7% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mats Braaten | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 2.8% |
| Blake Goodwin | 1.7% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 2.3% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 15.4% | 14.4% | 14.3% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Hayden Clary | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 14.3% | 17.1% | 15.9% |
| Patrick Shachoy | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| John Wood | 10.0% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Luke Barker | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 10.7% | 13.9% | 19.5% | 24.3% |
| Benjamin Reeser | 4.3% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% |
| Daren Sathasivam | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 14.5% | 11.4% | 8.4% |
| Gabriel "Gabe" Morreale | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 17.6% | 35.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.