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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.23+5.06vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.27+7.39vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.20+3.31vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.77+0.57vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.32+0.76vs Predicted
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6Harvard University2.37-0.10vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23-1.80vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.30+0.24vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.08+0.34vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland1.00-0.61vs Predicted
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12Stanford University2.55-6.67vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan-0.30+1.26vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College-0.06-0.29vs Predicted
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15George Washington University0.23-2.04vs Predicted
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16U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.60-7.70vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48-4.76vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles0.52-5.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.06Roger Williams University2.230.1%1st Place
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9.39Fordham University1.270.0%1st Place
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6.31U. S. Naval Academy2.200.1%1st Place
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4.57Yale University2.770.2%1st Place
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5.76Tulane University2.320.1%1st Place
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5.9Harvard University2.370.1%1st Place
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6.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.1%1st Place
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9.24Cornell University1.300.0%1st Place
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10.34Old Dominion University1.080.0%1st Place
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10.39St. Mary's College of Maryland1.000.0%1st Place
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5.33Stanford University2.550.1%1st Place
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14.26University of Michigan-0.300.0%1st Place
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13.71SUNY Maritime College-0.060.0%1st Place
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12.96George Washington University0.230.0%1st Place
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8.3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.600.1%1st Place
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12.24U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.480.0%1st Place
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12.03University of California at Los Angeles0.520.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan McDonald | 9.9% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Shachoy | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Owen MacWilliams | 8.3% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 16.0% | 15.0% | 11.7% | 14.0% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Wood | 11.3% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Harrison Strom | 9.5% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| JJ Klempen | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Pilar Cundey | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 0.6% |
| Blake Goodwin | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 5.0% | 2.6% |
| Mats Braaten | 2.3% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 4.7% | 3.0% |
| Lucas Woodworth | 13.1% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Gabriel "Gabe" Morreale | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 11.7% | 18.4% | 33.5% |
| Luke Barker | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 13.6% | 18.9% | 24.9% |
| Hayden Clary | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 13.4% | 18.9% | 14.3% |
| Benjamin Reeser | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Calvin Marsh | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 12.9% | 12.8% | 9.3% |
| Daren Sathasivam | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 10.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.