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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tulane University2.32+4.85vs Predicted
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2Harvard University2.37+3.74vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.20+3.41vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.23+2.36vs Predicted
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5Stanford University2.55+0.17vs Predicted
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6Yale University2.77-1.24vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland1.00+3.63vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.60+0.32vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.08+1.46vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23-3.81vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.30-1.36vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.27-2.38vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan0.57-0.85vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles0.52-2.64vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48-3.71vs Predicted
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17George Washington University0.23-3.91vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College-0.06-4.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.85Tulane University2.320.1%1st Place
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5.74Harvard University2.370.1%1st Place
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6.41U. S. Naval Academy2.200.1%1st Place
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6.36Roger Williams University2.230.1%1st Place
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5.17Stanford University2.550.1%1st Place
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4.76Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
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10.63St. Mary's College of Maryland1.000.0%1st Place
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8.32U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.600.1%1st Place
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10.46Old Dominion University1.080.0%1st Place
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6.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.1%1st Place
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9.64Cornell University1.300.0%1st Place
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9.62Fordham University1.270.0%1st Place
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12.15University of Michigan0.570.0%1st Place
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12.36University of California at Los Angeles0.520.0%1st Place
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12.29U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.480.0%1st Place
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13.09George Washington University0.230.0%1st Place
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13.96SUNY Maritime College-0.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wood | 11.0% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Harrison Strom | 10.1% | 12.5% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen MacWilliams | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Tristan McDonald | 9.8% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Woodworth | 13.1% | 12.6% | 12.7% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 14.4% | 12.8% | 13.8% | 12.4% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mats Braaten | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 2.9% |
| Benjamin Reeser | 5.7% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Blake Goodwin | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 11.5% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 3.6% |
| JJ Klempen | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Pilar Cundey | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 2.2% |
| Patrick Shachoy | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 1.8% |
| Ben Visco | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 11.5% |
| Daren Sathasivam | 0.9% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 12.5% | 14.1% | 12.8% |
| Calvin Marsh | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 13.7% | 13.1% | 13.6% |
| Hayden Clary | 1.4% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 15.1% | 19.5% |
| Luke Barker | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 18.1% | 31.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.