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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.77+3.54vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland1.00+8.55vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23+3.28vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.23+2.38vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.32+0.90vs Predicted
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6Harvard University2.37-0.02vs Predicted
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7Stanford University2.55-1.71vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.08+2.16vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.27+0.80vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.20-3.71vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.60-2.44vs Predicted
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12Cornell University1.30-2.46vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles0.52-1.72vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48-2.55vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College-0.06-2.20vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan0.57-4.89vs Predicted
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18George Washington University0.23-4.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.54Yale University2.770.2%1st Place
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10.55St. Mary's College of Maryland1.000.0%1st Place
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6.28Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.1%1st Place
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6.38Roger Williams University2.230.1%1st Place
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5.9Tulane University2.320.1%1st Place
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5.98Harvard University2.370.1%1st Place
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5.29Stanford University2.550.1%1st Place
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10.16Old Dominion University1.080.0%1st Place
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9.8Fordham University1.270.0%1st Place
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6.29U. S. Naval Academy2.200.1%1st Place
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8.56U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.600.1%1st Place
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9.54Cornell University1.300.0%1st Place
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12.28University of California at Los Angeles0.520.0%1st Place
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12.45U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.480.0%1st Place
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13.8SUNY Maritime College-0.060.0%1st Place
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12.11University of Michigan0.570.0%1st Place
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13.1George Washington University0.230.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Pinckney | 17.0% | 15.0% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mats Braaten | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 3.7% |
| JJ Klempen | 8.9% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Tristan McDonald | 9.7% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| John Wood | 9.9% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Harrison Strom | 9.7% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Woodworth | 11.3% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blake Goodwin | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 3.7% |
| Patrick Shachoy | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| Owen MacWilliams | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Reeser | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% |
| Pilar Cundey | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 1.4% |
| Daren Sathasivam | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 13.6% | 12.7% | 12.6% |
| Calvin Marsh | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 15.5% | 13.1% |
| Luke Barker | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 8.7% | 12.7% | 15.6% | 31.1% |
| Ben Visco | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 11.2% |
| Hayden Clary | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 14.2% | 15.5% | 20.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.