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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.77+3.59vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.55+3.27vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.08+6.32vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles0.52+7.18vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.82+1.63vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.20-0.45vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.23-1.65vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23-2.75vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan0.57+2.17vs Predicted
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11Tulane University2.32-4.99vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.27-2.24vs Predicted
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13Harvard University2.37-7.09vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland1.00-3.28vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.01-1.18vs Predicted
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16George Washington University0.23-3.02vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College-0.06-3.12vs Predicted
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18U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.60-9.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.59Yale University2.770.2%1st Place
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5.27Stanford University2.550.1%1st Place
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10.32Old Dominion University1.080.0%1st Place
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12.18University of California at Los Angeles0.520.0%1st Place
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7.63Cornell University1.820.1%1st Place
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6.55U. S. Naval Academy2.200.1%1st Place
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6.35Roger Williams University2.230.1%1st Place
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6.25Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.1%1st Place
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12.17University of Michigan0.570.0%1st Place
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6.01Tulane University2.320.1%1st Place
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9.76Fordham University1.270.0%1st Place
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5.91Harvard University2.370.1%1st Place
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10.72St. Mary's College of Maryland1.000.0%1st Place
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13.82U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.010.0%1st Place
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12.98George Washington University0.230.0%1st Place
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13.88SUNY Maritime College-0.060.0%1st Place
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8.61U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.600.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Pinckney | 17.6% | 13.5% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Woodworth | 12.6% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Blake Goodwin | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 2.4% |
| Daren Sathasivam | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 13.2% | 14.0% | 10.1% |
| Gilda Dondona | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Owen MacWilliams | 8.2% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Tristan McDonald | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| JJ Klempen | 10.2% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ben Visco | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 12.9% | 12.7% | 9.4% |
| John Wood | 9.0% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Patrick Shachoy | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 1.2% |
| Harrison Strom | 9.7% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Mats Braaten | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 5.4% | 4.7% |
| Robert Finora | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 12.2% | 18.9% | 26.8% |
| Hayden Clary | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 13.6% | 16.4% | 17.1% |
| Luke Barker | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 10.2% | 13.7% | 17.6% | 27.0% |
| Benjamin Reeser | 3.9% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.