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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California1.71+1.89vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz0.91+3.11vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California0.90+1.21vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26+4.42vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California0.38+1.54vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83+0.13vs Predicted
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7University of California at Irvine0.49-0.74vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-0.70+1.38vs Predicted
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9California State University Channel Islands-0.38-0.47vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University-0.62-0.68vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-0.58-2.30vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz-0.29-3.84vs Predicted
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13California Poly Maritime Academy-0.45-4.19vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-2.19-1.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.89University of Southern California1.7128.8%1st Place
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5.11University of California at Santa Cruz0.9110.8%1st Place
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4.21University of Southern California0.9014.8%1st Place
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8.42Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.263.6%1st Place
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6.54University of Southern California0.386.3%1st Place
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6.13Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.837.6%1st Place
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6.26University of California at Irvine0.497.8%1st Place
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9.38University of California at San Diego-0.703.1%1st Place
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8.53California State University Channel Islands-0.383.8%1st Place
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9.32Arizona State University-0.622.3%1st Place
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8.7University of California at San Diego-0.582.8%1st Place
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8.16University of California at Santa Cruz-0.293.9%1st Place
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8.81California Poly Maritime Academy-0.453.5%1st Place
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12.53University of California at Davis-2.190.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hudson Mayfield | 28.8% | 23.6% | 16.6% | 13.2% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Olson | 10.8% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Morgana Manti | 14.8% | 16.6% | 14.4% | 13.5% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Florence Duff | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 4.6% |
| Edward Ansart | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Jack Kisling | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Arin Bekem | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 14.1% | 16.4% | 7.6% |
| Brandon Stadtherr | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 4.9% |
| Gavin Hirz | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 15.1% | 7.5% |
| Sean Lipps | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 5.3% |
| Lucas Elliott | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 2.2% |
| Christopher Shintani | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 4.5% |
| Alexander Lohan | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 12.1% | 61.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.