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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Saint Thomas0.47+3.22vs Predicted
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2Indiana University0.82+1.41vs Predicted
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3Purdue University0.14+2.05vs Predicted
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4Northwestern University-0.38+2.41vs Predicted
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5Lake Forest College-1.46+4.04vs Predicted
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6University of Chicago0.40-1.70vs Predicted
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7Marquette University-0.48-0.47vs Predicted
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8Washington University-0.08-2.53vs Predicted
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9Michigan State University-1.91+1.20vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan-1.09-1.88vs Predicted
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11Northwestern University-2.47+0.17vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin-1.58-2.45vs Predicted
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13Hope College-0.77-5.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.22University of Saint Thomas0.470.2%1st Place
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3.41Indiana University0.820.2%1st Place
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5.05Purdue University0.140.1%1st Place
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6.41Northwestern University-0.380.1%1st Place
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9.04Lake Forest College-1.460.0%1st Place
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4.3University of Chicago0.400.2%1st Place
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6.53Marquette University-0.480.1%1st Place
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5.47Washington University-0.080.1%1st Place
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10.2Michigan State University-1.910.0%1st Place
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8.12University of Michigan-1.090.0%1st Place
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11.17Northwestern University-2.470.0%1st Place
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9.55University of Wisconsin-1.580.0%1st Place
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7.52Hope College-0.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Bittle | 15.8% | 15.2% | 13.4% | 13.0% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nithya Balachander | 23.5% | 19.3% | 15.5% | 13.8% | 10.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Childers | 10.4% | 12.1% | 12.4% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Charles Crowell | 5.2% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% |
| Andrea Casagrande Caron | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 16.4% | 16.1% | 9.3% |
| Max Zhalilo | 16.0% | 13.7% | 14.1% | 14.8% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brian Zettlemoyer | 7.0% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 1.5% |
| Wyatt Tait | 9.3% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 12.1% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Joey Skerbeck | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 15.2% | 22.5% | 23.2% |
| John McCalmont | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 9.6% | 5.3% |
| Sean Bascoe | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 20.8% | 42.3% |
| Phoebe Milhollin | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 12.2% | 17.8% | 17.7% | 14.3% |
| Caroline Henry | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 6.8% | 2.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.