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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California1.71+1.97vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz0.91+3.09vs Predicted
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3California State University Channel Islands-0.38+5.52vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California0.90+0.22vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26+3.57vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz-0.29+1.79vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83-0.69vs Predicted
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8California Poly Maritime Academy-0.45+0.59vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University-0.62+0.19vs Predicted
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10University of California at Irvine0.49-3.62vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-0.70-1.50vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-0.58-3.23vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-2.19-0.47vs Predicted
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14University of Southern California0.38-7.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.97University of Southern California1.7129.2%1st Place
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5.09University of California at Santa Cruz0.9111.9%1st Place
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8.52California State University Channel Islands-0.384.0%1st Place
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4.22University of Southern California0.9014.8%1st Place
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8.57Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.262.8%1st Place
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7.79University of California at Santa Cruz-0.294.4%1st Place
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6.31Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.837.0%1st Place
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8.59California Poly Maritime Academy-0.453.6%1st Place
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9.19Arizona State University-0.623.1%1st Place
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6.38University of California at Irvine0.496.5%1st Place
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9.5University of California at San Diego-0.702.2%1st Place
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8.77University of California at San Diego-0.582.7%1st Place
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12.53University of California at Davis-2.190.4%1st Place
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6.57University of Southern California0.387.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hudson Mayfield | 29.2% | 21.3% | 16.7% | 12.1% | 9.2% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Colin Olson | 11.9% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Brandon Stadtherr | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 4.9% |
| Morgana Manti | 14.8% | 15.9% | 15.9% | 13.2% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Florence Duff | 2.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 4.0% |
| Lucas Elliott | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 2.8% |
| Jack Kisling | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Christopher Shintani | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 4.8% |
| Gavin Hirz | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 15.1% | 6.8% |
| Arin Bekem | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 16.5% | 8.6% |
| Sean Lipps | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 4.8% |
| Alexander Lohan | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 11.7% | 61.6% |
| Edward Ansart | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.