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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of South Florida3.49+7.62vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston3.95+4.77vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.23+6.85vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+2.99vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.44+4.12vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.49+2.56vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42+1.99vs Predicted
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8Washington College2.29+5.89vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont2.74+2.63vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College3.60-1.98vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University3.30-1.56vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University3.07-1.17vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin3.36-4.12vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland3.30-4.42vs Predicted
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15Eckerd College2.78-3.44vs Predicted
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16Columbia University2.13-1.81vs Predicted
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17Fordham University2.04-2.52vs Predicted
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18Cornell University2.48-5.18vs Predicted
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19Yale University4.10-13.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.62University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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6.77College of Charleston3.950.1%1st Place
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9.85Brown University3.230.1%1st Place
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6.99Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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9.12Georgetown University3.440.0%1st Place
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8.56Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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8.99U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.1%1st Place
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13.89Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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11.63University of Vermont2.740.0%1st Place
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8.02SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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9.44Old Dominion University3.300.0%1st Place
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10.83Roger Williams University3.070.0%1st Place
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8.88University of Wisconsin3.360.1%1st Place
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9.58St. Mary's College of Maryland3.300.1%1st Place
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11.56Eckerd College2.780.0%1st Place
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14.19Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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14.48Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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12.82Cornell University2.480.0%1st Place
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5.77Yale University4.100.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Stocke | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Ben Spector | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Tyler Rice | 5.2% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 2.2% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 9.6% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Matthew Gowell | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Scott Houck | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.0% |
| Gary Herring | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% |
| Mildred Conroy | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 14.7% | 17.6% |
| Hunter Mumma | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 6.5% |
| Harry Scott | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Scott Hoffmann | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.2% |
| George Saunders | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 3.3% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.0% |
| Jacob La Dow | 5.4% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Robert Savoie | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 6.8% |
| David Coplon | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 15.2% | 20.6% |
| Alex Reynolds | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 17.4% | 24.2% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 11.5% |
| Morgan Kiss | 12.5% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.