← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Southern California0.90+3.25vs Predicted
-
2University of California at Santa Cruz0.91+3.12vs Predicted
-
3University of Southern California1.71-0.10vs Predicted
-
4California State University Channel Islands-0.38+4.64vs Predicted
-
5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83+1.29vs Predicted
-
6University of California at Irvine0.49+0.07vs Predicted
-
7University of California at Santa Cruz-0.29+0.86vs Predicted
-
8University of Southern California0.38-1.47vs Predicted
-
9University of California at San Diego-0.70+0.46vs Predicted
-
10University of California at San Diego-0.58-1.17vs Predicted
-
11Arizona State University-0.62-1.95vs Predicted
-
12California Poly Maritime Academy-0.45-3.41vs Predicted
-
13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.47-4.10vs Predicted
-
14University of California at Davis-2.19-1.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.25University of Southern California0.9015.5%1st Place
-
5.12University of California at Santa Cruz0.9110.3%1st Place
-
2.9University of Southern California1.7130.2%1st Place
-
8.64California State University Channel Islands-0.383.6%1st Place
-
6.29Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.836.6%1st Place
-
6.07University of California at Irvine0.497.6%1st Place
-
7.86University of California at Santa Cruz-0.294.2%1st Place
-
6.53University of Southern California0.386.4%1st Place
-
9.46University of California at San Diego-0.702.8%1st Place
-
8.83University of California at San Diego-0.583.0%1st Place
-
9.05Arizona State University-0.623.2%1st Place
-
8.59California Poly Maritime Academy-0.453.5%1st Place
-
8.9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.472.6%1st Place
-
12.51University of California at Davis-2.190.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgana Manti | 15.5% | 15.6% | 15.3% | 13.2% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Colin Olson | 10.3% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 12.4% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 30.2% | 21.4% | 17.3% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brandon Stadtherr | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 4.5% |
| Jack Kisling | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Arin Bekem | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Lucas Elliott | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 2.6% |
| Edward Ansart | 6.4% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 13.5% | 15.8% | 7.9% |
| Sean Lipps | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 12.4% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 4.8% |
| Gavin Hirz | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 13.3% | 7.0% |
| Christopher Shintani | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 5.2% |
| Ximena Greatorex | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 5.8% |
| Alexander Lohan | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 11.4% | 60.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.