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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42+7.96vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.44+6.90vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.30+6.59vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.49+4.61vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+2.20vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.23+3.64vs Predicted
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7Yale University4.10-0.85vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.04+6.68vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin3.36-0.01vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston3.95-3.47vs Predicted
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11Eckerd College2.78+0.68vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont2.74+0.29vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland3.30-3.83vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida3.49-5.28vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College3.60-6.89vs Predicted
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16Washington College2.29-2.32vs Predicted
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17Columbia University2.13-2.78vs Predicted
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18Cornell University2.48-5.14vs Predicted
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19Roger Williams University3.07-8.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.96U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.0%1st Place
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8.9Georgetown University3.440.1%1st Place
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9.59Old Dominion University3.300.1%1st Place
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8.61Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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7.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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9.64Brown University3.230.1%1st Place
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6.15Yale University4.100.1%1st Place
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14.68Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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8.99University of Wisconsin3.360.1%1st Place
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6.53College of Charleston3.950.1%1st Place
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11.68Eckerd College2.780.0%1st Place
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12.29University of Vermont2.740.0%1st Place
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9.17St. Mary's College of Maryland3.300.1%1st Place
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8.72University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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8.11SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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13.68Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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14.22Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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12.86Cornell University2.480.0%1st Place
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10.01Roger Williams University3.070.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Herring | 4.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Matthew Gowell | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Scott Hoffmann | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.5% |
| Scott Houck | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Rice | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 2.0% |
| Morgan Kiss | 11.2% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alex Reynolds | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 10.9% | 16.6% | 25.9% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 6.7% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.8% |
| Ben Spector | 9.6% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Robert Savoie | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 4.7% |
| Hunter Mumma | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 6.7% |
| Jacob La Dow | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| Will Stocke | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% |
| Harry Scott | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Mildred Conroy | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 13.6% | 16.6% |
| David Coplon | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 10.9% | 15.6% | 22.1% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 11.6% |
| George Saunders | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.