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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California1.71+1.93vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz0.91+3.01vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83+3.12vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California0.38+2.56vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz-0.29+3.07vs Predicted
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6California State University Channel Islands-0.38+2.62vs Predicted
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7University of California at Irvine0.49-0.67vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California0.90-3.77vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University-0.62+0.22vs Predicted
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10California Poly Maritime Academy-0.45-1.23vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.47-2.40vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-0.58-3.35vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-2.19-0.43vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-0.70-4.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.93University of Southern California1.7128.6%1st Place
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5.01University of California at Santa Cruz0.9112.2%1st Place
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6.12Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.837.9%1st Place
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6.56University of Southern California0.386.7%1st Place
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8.07University of California at Santa Cruz-0.294.2%1st Place
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8.62California State University Channel Islands-0.382.6%1st Place
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6.33University of California at Irvine0.497.0%1st Place
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4.23University of Southern California0.9015.4%1st Place
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9.22Arizona State University-0.622.6%1st Place
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8.77California Poly Maritime Academy-0.452.9%1st Place
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8.6Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.474.2%1st Place
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8.65University of California at San Diego-0.583.1%1st Place
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12.57University of California at Davis-2.190.4%1st Place
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9.33University of California at San Diego-0.702.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hudson Mayfield | 28.6% | 22.9% | 17.0% | 12.2% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Olson | 12.2% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jack Kisling | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Edward Ansart | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Lucas Elliott | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 2.7% |
| Brandon Stadtherr | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 4.5% |
| Arin Bekem | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Morgana Manti | 15.4% | 15.4% | 15.2% | 13.5% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Gavin Hirz | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 14.6% | 7.0% |
| Christopher Shintani | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 5.0% |
| Ximena Greatorex | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 5.7% |
| Sean Lipps | 3.1% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 5.5% |
| Alexander Lohan | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 12.7% | 60.7% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 15.2% | 7.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.