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📊 Prediction Accuracy
54.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California1.47+3.47vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara0.97+3.94vs Predicted
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3California State University Channel Islands0.42+5.21vs Predicted
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4San Diego State University1.23+1.15vs Predicted
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5University of California at Irvine-0.66+7.44vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy-0.07+4.03vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California0.640.00vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.20+1.02vs Predicted
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9San Diego State University0.17-0.03vs Predicted
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10California Poly Maritime Academy0.33-1.73vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California-0.27-0.39vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-0.43-0.48vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz0.65-5.90vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06-3.76vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-0.90-1.33vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-1.13-1.84vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-1.74-0.42vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-1.38-2.81vs Predicted
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19University of California at Irvine-3.02+0.81vs Predicted
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20California State University Channel Islands-2.08-2.47vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego-2.91-1.55vs Predicted
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22Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.14-4.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.47University of Southern California1.470.2%1st Place
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5.94University of California at Santa Barbara0.970.1%1st Place
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8.21California State University Channel Islands0.420.1%1st Place
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5.15San Diego State University1.230.1%1st Place
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12.44University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
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10.03California Poly Maritime Academy-0.070.0%1st Place
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7.0University of Southern California0.640.1%1st Place
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9.02University of California at Berkeley0.200.1%1st Place
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8.97San Diego State University0.170.0%1st Place
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8.27California Poly Maritime Academy0.330.0%1st Place
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10.61University of Southern California-0.270.0%1st Place
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11.52University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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7.1University of California at Santa Cruz0.650.1%1st Place
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10.24Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
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13.67Arizona State University-0.900.0%1st Place
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14.16University of California at San Diego-1.130.0%1st Place
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16.58University of California at Los Angeles-1.740.0%1st Place
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15.19University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.0%1st Place
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19.81University of California at Irvine-3.020.0%1st Place
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17.53California State University Channel Islands-2.080.0%1st Place
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19.45University of California at San Diego-2.910.0%1st Place
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17.61Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Harris | 16.9% | 14.6% | 14.7% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Erisman | 10.7% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Maggard | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aston Smith | 12.8% | 13.6% | 12.5% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nikita Swatek | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Sam Jennings | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgana Manti | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wilton Lawton | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Cuyler | 4.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jackson McKinley | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Braedon Hansen | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Colin Olson | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Powers | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 0.8% |
| Liam Williams | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 14.1% | 14.2% | 10.8% | 4.5% |
| Conrad Kistler | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 2.3% |
| Michael Jacobson | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 21.3% | 37.7% |
| Brent Lin | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 11.1% | 13.5% | 17.0% | 16.0% | 9.2% |
| Alexis Gregorie | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 14.2% | 20.1% | 35.2% |
| Daniel Gates | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 6.3% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 16.4% | 18.6% | 9.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.