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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California1.47+3.22vs Predicted
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2San Diego State University0.17+6.65vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California0.64+4.08vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley0.20+4.54vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy0.33+3.12vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy-0.07+3.72vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06+2.36vs Predicted
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8University of California at Irvine-0.66+4.33vs Predicted
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9University of California at Davis-0.43+2.16vs Predicted
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10California State University Channel Islands0.42-2.47vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California-0.27-0.68vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University1.23-7.23vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-1.74+3.29vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.13+0.29vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Cruz0.65-8.01vs Predicted
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16California State University Channel Islands-2.08+1.20vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-1.38-1.85vs Predicted
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18Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.36+0.01vs Predicted
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19University of California at Santa Barbara-0.44-7.97vs Predicted
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20Arizona State University-0.90-6.77vs Predicted
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21University of California at Irvine-3.02-1.41vs Predicted
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22University of California at San Diego-2.91-2.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.22University of Southern California1.470.2%1st Place
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8.65San Diego State University0.170.1%1st Place
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7.08University of Southern California0.640.1%1st Place
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8.54University of California at Berkeley0.200.1%1st Place
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8.12California Poly Maritime Academy0.330.1%1st Place
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9.72California Poly Maritime Academy-0.070.0%1st Place
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9.36Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.1%1st Place
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12.33University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
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11.16University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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7.53California State University Channel Islands0.420.1%1st Place
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10.32University of Southern California-0.270.0%1st Place
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4.77San Diego State University1.230.1%1st Place
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16.29University of California at Los Angeles-1.740.0%1st Place
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14.29University of California at San Diego-1.130.0%1st Place
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6.99University of California at Santa Cruz0.650.1%1st Place
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17.2California State University Channel Islands-2.080.0%1st Place
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15.15University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.0%1st Place
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18.01Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.360.0%1st Place
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11.03University of California at Santa Barbara-0.440.0%1st Place
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13.23Arizona State University-0.900.0%1st Place
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19.59University of California at Irvine-3.020.0%1st Place
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19.42University of California at San Diego-2.910.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Harris | 19.1% | 15.7% | 14.1% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Morgana Manti | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wilton Lawton | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Owen Cuyler | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Jennings | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nikita Swatek | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Braedon Hansen | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sterling Maggard | 6.5% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jackson McKinley | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Aston Smith | 14.5% | 15.0% | 13.3% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Williams | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 14.1% | 14.1% | 9.1% | 4.1% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 0.7% |
| Colin Olson | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brent Lin | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 15.3% | 14.9% | 9.3% |
| Conrad Kistler | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 13.0% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 4.9% | 2.3% |
| Griffin Vernon | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 14.0% | 16.6% | 18.6% | 12.6% |
| JT Long | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Powers | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Michael Jacobson | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 7.5% | 12.6% | 20.6% | 38.2% |
| Alexis Gregorie | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 14.2% | 23.3% | 31.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.