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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California1.47+3.45vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara0.97+3.98vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California0.64+4.33vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy0.33+4.50vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06+5.03vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley0.20+2.89vs Predicted
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7California Poly Maritime Academy-0.07+2.80vs Predicted
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8California State University Channel Islands0.42+0.18vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California-0.27+1.87vs Predicted
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10University of California at Irvine-0.66+2.31vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz0.65-4.06vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University1.23-6.97vs Predicted
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13Arizona State University-0.90+0.43vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.14+3.84vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis-0.43-3.24vs Predicted
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16San Diego State University0.17-7.05vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-1.74-0.38vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-1.38-2.82vs Predicted
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19California State University Channel Islands-2.08-1.58vs Predicted
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20University of California at Irvine-3.02-0.20vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego-2.91-1.52vs Predicted
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22University of California at San Diego-1.13-7.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.45University of Southern California1.470.2%1st Place
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5.98University of California at Santa Barbara0.970.1%1st Place
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7.33University of Southern California0.640.1%1st Place
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8.5California Poly Maritime Academy0.330.1%1st Place
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10.03Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
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8.89University of California at Berkeley0.200.0%1st Place
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9.8California Poly Maritime Academy-0.070.0%1st Place
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8.18California State University Channel Islands0.420.1%1st Place
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10.87University of Southern California-0.270.0%1st Place
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12.31University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
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6.94University of California at Santa Cruz0.650.1%1st Place
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5.03San Diego State University1.230.1%1st Place
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13.43Arizona State University-0.900.0%1st Place
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17.84Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.140.0%1st Place
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11.76University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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8.95San Diego State University0.170.0%1st Place
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16.62University of California at Los Angeles-1.740.0%1st Place
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15.18University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.0%1st Place
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17.42California State University Channel Islands-2.080.0%1st Place
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19.8University of California at Irvine-3.020.0%1st Place
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19.48University of California at San Diego-2.910.0%1st Place
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14.18University of California at San Diego-1.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Harris | 17.4% | 14.1% | 14.7% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Erisman | 10.5% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgana Manti | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Cuyler | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Wilton Lawton | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Jennings | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Maggard | 8.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jackson McKinley | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nikita Swatek | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Colin Olson | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aston Smith | 13.6% | 14.1% | 10.7% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Powers | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Daniel Gates | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 18.3% | 16.9% | 11.7% |
| Braedon Hansen | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Liam Williams | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 12.7% | 15.6% | 14.1% | 9.6% | 4.4% |
| Conrad Kistler | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 8.8% | 5.3% | 1.9% |
| Brent Lin | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 13.1% | 17.3% | 15.0% | 8.0% |
| Michael Jacobson | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 24.2% | 39.2% |
| Alexis Gregorie | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 22.4% | 33.8% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 0.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.