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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California1.47+3.49vs Predicted
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2San Diego State University1.23+3.14vs Predicted
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3University of California at Irvine-0.66+9.82vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy-0.07+6.14vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy0.33+3.48vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California0.64+1.16vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara0.97-1.13vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.20+1.09vs Predicted
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9California State University Channel Islands0.42-0.97vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz0.65-2.97vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California-0.27-0.28vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University0.17-3.05vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06-2.98vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-0.43-2.12vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-0.90-1.21vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-1.13-1.68vs Predicted
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17California State University Channel Islands-2.08+0.83vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-2.05-0.41vs Predicted
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19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.14-1.19vs Predicted
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20University of California at Los Angeles-1.38-4.51vs Predicted
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21University of California at Irvine-3.02-1.14vs Predicted
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22University of California at Los Angeles-1.74-5.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.49University of Southern California1.470.2%1st Place
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5.14San Diego State University1.230.1%1st Place
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12.82University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
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10.14California Poly Maritime Academy-0.070.0%1st Place
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8.48California Poly Maritime Academy0.330.1%1st Place
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7.16University of Southern California0.640.1%1st Place
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5.87University of California at Santa Barbara0.970.1%1st Place
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9.09University of California at Berkeley0.200.1%1st Place
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8.03California State University Channel Islands0.420.1%1st Place
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7.03University of California at Santa Cruz0.650.1%1st Place
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10.72University of Southern California-0.270.0%1st Place
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8.95San Diego State University0.170.0%1st Place
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10.02Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
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11.88University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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13.79Arizona State University-0.900.0%1st Place
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14.32University of California at San Diego-1.130.0%1st Place
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17.83California State University Channel Islands-2.080.0%1st Place
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17.59University of California at San Diego-2.050.0%1st Place
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17.81Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.140.0%1st Place
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15.49University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.0%1st Place
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19.86University of California at Irvine-3.020.0%1st Place
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16.49University of California at Los Angeles-1.740.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Harris | 15.8% | 16.0% | 13.6% | 12.4% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aston Smith | 14.6% | 13.8% | 11.8% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nikita Swatek | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Sam Jennings | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Owen Cuyler | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgana Manti | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Erisman | 11.5% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wilton Lawton | 6.6% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Maggard | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Colin Olson | 6.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jackson McKinley | 3.4% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Braedon Hansen | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Mitchell Powers | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 1.1% |
| Brent Lin | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 12.4% | 16.4% | 16.8% | 14.2% |
| Ryan McCrystal | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 13.6% | 14.6% | 17.9% | 11.3% |
| Daniel Gates | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 13.1% | 18.0% | 14.8% |
| Conrad Kistler | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 7.0% | 3.9% |
| Michael Jacobson | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 16.5% | 48.2% |
| Liam Williams | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 13.4% | 12.5% | 5.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.