← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
54.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1California Poly Maritime Academy1.75+1.78vs Predicted
-
2University of Southern California1.48+1.26vs Predicted
-
3San Diego State University-0.19+4.83vs Predicted
-
4University of Southern California0.46+1.71vs Predicted
-
5University of California at Berkeley0.64+0.17vs Predicted
-
6California Poly Maritime Academy0.20+0.42vs Predicted
-
7Arizona State University-1.24+4.39vs Predicted
-
8University of California at Los Angeles0.13-1.25vs Predicted
-
9University of California at Irvine-1.53+3.76vs Predicted
-
10University of California at Santa Barbara-1.23+1.45vs Predicted
-
11University of California at Santa Cruz-0.98-0.68vs Predicted
-
12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.34+4.04vs Predicted
-
13University of California at Los Angeles-2.58+3.84vs Predicted
-
14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.68-0.36vs Predicted
-
15California State University Channel Islands-2.04+0.10vs Predicted
-
16San Diego State University-2.04-1.37vs Predicted
-
17University of California at San Diego-1.99-2.26vs Predicted
-
18California State University Channel Islands-2.78-0.62vs Predicted
-
19University of California at San Diego-2.62-2.20vs Predicted
-
20University of California at Irvine-2.14-4.74vs Predicted
-
21University of California at Davis-2.80-3.53vs Predicted
-
22University of Southern California-1.19-10.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
2.78California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.3%1st Place
-
3.26University of Southern California1.480.2%1st Place
-
7.83San Diego State University-0.190.0%1st Place
-
5.71University of Southern California0.460.1%1st Place
-
5.17University of California at Berkeley0.640.1%1st Place
-
6.42California Poly Maritime Academy0.200.1%1st Place
-
11.39Arizona State University-1.240.0%1st Place
-
6.75University of California at Los Angeles0.130.1%1st Place
-
12.76University of California at Irvine-1.530.0%1st Place
-
11.45University of California at Santa Barbara-1.230.0%1st Place
-
10.32University of California at Santa Cruz-0.980.0%1st Place
-
16.04Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.340.0%1st Place
-
16.84University of California at Los Angeles-2.580.0%1st Place
-
13.64Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.680.0%1st Place
-
15.1California State University Channel Islands-2.040.0%1st Place
-
14.63San Diego State University-2.040.0%1st Place
-
14.74University of California at San Diego-1.990.0%1st Place
-
17.38California State University Channel Islands-2.780.0%1st Place
-
16.8University of California at San Diego-2.620.0%1st Place
-
15.26University of California at Irvine-2.140.0%1st Place
-
17.47University of California at Davis-2.800.0%1st Place
-
11.26University of Southern California-1.190.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Mueller | 29.2% | 22.7% | 18.5% | 13.0% | 9.3% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 23.7% | 21.2% | 16.3% | 13.2% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Gormely | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maximilian Conze | 6.9% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carsten Zieger | 10.3% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 14.0% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolai Perez | 5.4% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gavin Hirz | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| Brendan Connelly | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brayden Money | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% |
| Jonah Eckerman | 0.8% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Elliott | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Colin Thompson | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 8.2% |
| Andrew Bistras | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 13.9% | 13.9% |
| Sienna Stromberg | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 1.9% |
| Seraphee de Labaca | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 4.4% |
| Ryan Giorgianni | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 3.9% |
| Cassie Halaszynski | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 4.9% |
| Kurt Richards | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 11.9% | 14.1% | 18.9% |
| Maria Gunness | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 14.7% |
| Gennis Marie Pilapil | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 5.4% |
| Blossom Jee | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 13.4% | 22.1% |
| Ava Bergan | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.