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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.75+1.81vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles0.13+4.71vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California0.46+2.76vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California1.48-0.74vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.34+10.93vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California-1.19+5.42vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz-0.98+3.34vs Predicted
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8San Diego State University-0.19-0.14vs Predicted
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9California State University Channel Islands-2.04+5.80vs Predicted
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10California Poly Maritime Academy0.20-3.70vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley0.64-5.94vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.68+1.44vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine-1.53-0.27vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-2.62+3.22vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis-2.80+2.79vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-1.99-1.56vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara-1.23-5.31vs Predicted
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18University of California at Irvine-2.14-2.96vs Predicted
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19University of California at Los Angeles-2.58-2.36vs Predicted
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20San Diego State University-2.04-5.05vs Predicted
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21California State University Channel Islands-2.78-3.63vs Predicted
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22Arizona State University-1.24-10.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.81California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.3%1st Place
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6.71University of California at Los Angeles0.130.1%1st Place
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5.76University of Southern California0.460.1%1st Place
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3.26University of Southern California1.480.2%1st Place
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15.93Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.340.0%1st Place
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11.42University of Southern California-1.190.0%1st Place
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10.34University of California at Santa Cruz-0.980.0%1st Place
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7.86San Diego State University-0.190.1%1st Place
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14.8California State University Channel Islands-2.040.0%1st Place
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6.3California Poly Maritime Academy0.200.1%1st Place
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5.06University of California at Berkeley0.640.1%1st Place
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13.44Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.680.0%1st Place
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12.73University of California at Irvine-1.530.0%1st Place
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17.22University of California at San Diego-2.620.0%1st Place
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17.79University of California at Davis-2.800.0%1st Place
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14.44University of California at San Diego-1.990.0%1st Place
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11.69University of California at Santa Barbara-1.230.0%1st Place
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15.04University of California at Irvine-2.140.0%1st Place
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16.64University of California at Los Angeles-2.580.0%1st Place
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14.95San Diego State University-2.040.0%1st Place
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17.37California State University Channel Islands-2.780.0%1st Place
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11.47Arizona State University-1.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Mueller | 28.5% | 24.5% | 17.0% | 13.7% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Connelly | 5.1% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maximilian Conze | 8.5% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 9.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 21.5% | 23.0% | 17.6% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Thompson | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 7.0% |
| Ava Bergan | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Elliott | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Owen Gormely | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Seraphee de Labaca | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 4.0% |
| Nicolai Perez | 5.3% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carsten Zieger | 11.5% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 12.5% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sienna Stromberg | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| Brayden Money | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Maria Gunness | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 18.2% |
| Blossom Jee | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 16.0% | 21.2% |
| Cassie Halaszynski | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 3.3% |
| Jonah Eckerman | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| Gennis Marie Pilapil | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 4.5% |
| Andrew Bistras | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 13.7% |
| Ryan Giorgianni | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 4.4% |
| Kurt Richards | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 14.1% | 20.7% |
| Gavin Hirz | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.