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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83+5.37vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz0.91+3.19vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California1.71+0.04vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University0.50+2.11vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California0.90-0.55vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine0.49+0.43vs Predicted
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7Arizona State University-0.62+2.36vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-0.58+0.79vs Predicted
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9California State University Channel Islands-0.38-0.37vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California0.38-3.32vs Predicted
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11California Poly Maritime Academy-0.45-2.33vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-0.70-2.17vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-2.19-0.36vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26-5.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.37Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.837.7%1st Place
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5.19University of California at Santa Cruz0.9110.4%1st Place
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3.04University of Southern California1.7127.7%1st Place
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6.11Northeastern University0.508.2%1st Place
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4.45University of Southern California0.9014.0%1st Place
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6.43University of California at Irvine0.496.6%1st Place
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9.36Arizona State University-0.622.3%1st Place
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8.79University of California at San Diego-0.583.6%1st Place
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8.63California State University Channel Islands-0.383.3%1st Place
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6.68University of Southern California0.387.4%1st Place
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8.67California Poly Maritime Academy-0.452.9%1st Place
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9.83University of California at San Diego-0.702.4%1st Place
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12.64University of California at Davis-2.190.3%1st Place
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8.83Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.263.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Kisling | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Colin Olson | 10.4% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 27.7% | 22.4% | 16.2% | 12.1% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carter Anderson | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Morgana Manti | 14.0% | 14.7% | 13.4% | 14.3% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Arin Bekem | 6.6% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Gavin Hirz | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 12.4% | 13.6% | 13.7% | 7.1% |
| Sean Lipps | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 12.7% | 5.0% |
| Brandon Stadtherr | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 5.3% |
| Edward Ansart | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 0.8% |
| Christopher Shintani | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 5.0% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 14.8% | 17.8% | 9.8% |
| Alexander Lohan | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 12.7% | 61.0% |
| Florence Duff | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 11.1% | 4.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.