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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.10+5.15vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+5.09vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.49+5.73vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston3.95+2.67vs Predicted
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5University of South Florida3.49+3.88vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University3.30+3.37vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin3.36+2.22vs Predicted
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8Eckerd College2.78+3.89vs Predicted
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9Brown University3.23+0.58vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.30-0.70vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University3.44-2.19vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University3.07-1.21vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42-4.34vs Predicted
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14Washington College2.29-0.14vs Predicted
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15Cornell University2.48-2.22vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College3.60-7.98vs Predicted
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17Fordham University2.04-2.50vs Predicted
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18Columbia University2.13-3.75vs Predicted
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19University of Vermont2.74-7.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.15Yale University4.100.1%1st Place
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7.09Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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8.73Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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6.67College of Charleston3.950.1%1st Place
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8.88University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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9.37Old Dominion University3.300.1%1st Place
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9.22University of Wisconsin3.360.1%1st Place
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11.89Eckerd College2.780.0%1st Place
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9.58Brown University3.230.1%1st Place
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9.3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.300.1%1st Place
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8.81Georgetown University3.440.1%1st Place
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10.79Roger Williams University3.070.0%1st Place
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8.66U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.1%1st Place
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13.86Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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12.78Cornell University2.480.0%1st Place
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8.02SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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14.5Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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14.25Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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11.45University of Vermont2.740.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Kiss | 10.5% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 11.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Scott Houck | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.3% |
| Ben Spector | 9.7% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Will Stocke | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Scott Hoffmann | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.2% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% |
| Robert Savoie | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 6.3% |
| Tyler Rice | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.3% |
| Jacob La Dow | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Matthew Gowell | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| George Saunders | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 3.1% |
| Gary Herring | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| Mildred Conroy | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 13.5% | 17.3% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 12.9% | 12.3% |
| Harry Scott | 7.2% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Alex Reynolds | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 11.0% | 15.2% | 24.8% |
| David Coplon | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 20.7% |
| Hunter Mumma | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 4.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.