← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
63.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy1.78+0.84vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy0.27+1.66vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland1.28-0.60vs Predicted
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4Washington College-0.80+1.76vs Predicted
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5Princeton University-0.92+0.78vs Predicted
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7University of Maryland/Baltimore County-2.45+1.76vs Predicted
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8St. John's College-1.31-1.57vs Predicted
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9Drexel University-1.19-2.78vs Predicted
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10University of Delaware-1.57-2.82vs Predicted
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11Catholic University of America-2.14-2.92vs Predicted
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12Syracuse University-3.33-2.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.84U. S. Naval Academy1.780.5%1st Place
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3.66U. S. Naval Academy0.270.1%1st Place
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2.4St. Mary's College of Maryland1.280.3%1st Place
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5.76Washington College-0.800.0%1st Place
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5.78Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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8.76University of Maryland/Baltimore County-2.450.0%1st Place
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6.43St. John's College-1.310.0%1st Place
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6.22Drexel University-1.190.0%1st Place
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7.18University of Delaware-1.570.0%1st Place
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8.08Catholic University of America-2.140.0%1st Place
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9.87Syracuse University-3.330.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Trudell | 47.4% | 30.2% | 14.9% | 6.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Logan Hayes | 10.9% | 15.1% | 24.7% | 20.6% | 13.0% | 9.2% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Marynowski | 25.9% | 34.1% | 21.9% | 12.1% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Imogene Nuss | 3.3% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 13.1% | 16.6% | 16.6% | 13.8% | 12.8% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 0.7% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 3.5% | 4.5% | 8.7% | 12.5% | 16.0% | 15.0% | 16.0% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 4.0% | 0.4% |
| John TIS | 0.3% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 11.0% | 15.5% | 28.4% | 21.6% |
| Silas Hodges | 2.6% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 14.0% | 13.9% | 15.6% | 16.1% | 11.4% | 6.3% | 2.4% |
| Nathaniel Adams | 2.8% | 3.1% | 6.8% | 11.5% | 14.7% | 15.0% | 14.4% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 6.5% | 1.2% |
| Ethan Deutsch | 1.9% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 15.3% | 15.9% | 17.5% | 10.8% | 5.6% |
| John Anthony Caraig | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 13.5% | 19.4% | 22.8% | 10.8% |
| Finn Halstead | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 9.2% | 17.4% | 57.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.