← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
90.9%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Naval Academy1.78+0.80vs Predicted
-
2U. S. Naval Academy0.27+1.52vs Predicted
-
3Washington College-0.80+2.37vs Predicted
-
4St. Mary's College of Maryland1.28-1.65vs Predicted
-
5University of Delaware-1.57+1.56vs Predicted
-
6Princeton University-0.92-0.54vs Predicted
-
7Drexel University-1.19-1.22vs Predicted
-
9Catholic University of America-2.14-1.51vs Predicted
-
10University of Maryland/Baltimore County-2.45-1.88vs Predicted
-
11Syracuse University-3.33-1.71vs Predicted
-
12St. John's College-4.22-1.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
1.8U. S. Naval Academy1.780.5%1st Place
-
3.52U. S. Naval Academy0.270.1%1st Place
-
5.37Washington College-0.800.0%1st Place
-
2.35St. Mary's College of Maryland1.280.3%1st Place
-
6.56University of Delaware-1.570.0%1st Place
-
5.46Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
-
5.78Drexel University-1.190.0%1st Place
-
7.49Catholic University of America-2.140.0%1st Place
-
8.12University of Maryland/Baltimore County-2.450.0%1st Place
-
9.29Syracuse University-3.330.0%1st Place
-
10.26St. John's College-4.220.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Trudell | 47.2% | 32.6% | 14.8% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Logan Hayes | 10.9% | 14.8% | 27.5% | 21.0% | 15.5% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Imogene Nuss | 3.1% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 17.0% | 16.9% | 20.2% | 13.7% | 10.9% | 3.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Marynowski | 28.2% | 31.4% | 24.2% | 10.8% | 4.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Deutsch | 2.2% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 15.2% | 17.0% | 17.4% | 14.0% | 6.0% | 0.5% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 2.7% | 5.5% | 8.7% | 15.1% | 17.8% | 18.2% | 16.9% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Nathaniel Adams | 2.7% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 12.8% | 17.9% | 16.3% | 16.9% | 12.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 0.1% |
| John Anthony Caraig | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 10.8% | 15.3% | 18.9% | 20.4% | 14.6% | 2.6% |
| John TIS | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 10.9% | 19.1% | 24.9% | 19.2% | 7.6% |
| Finn Halstead | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 8.0% | 17.3% | 36.0% | 24.7% |
| August Bellanca | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 4.1% | 7.2% | 19.2% | 64.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.