← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
90.9%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy1.78+0.80vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy0.27+1.48vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland1.28-0.68vs Predicted
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4Washington College-0.80+1.32vs Predicted
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5Princeton University-0.92+0.38vs Predicted
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6Catholic University of America-2.14+1.57vs Predicted
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8Drexel University-1.47-1.78vs Predicted
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9University of Maryland/Baltimore County-2.45-1.04vs Predicted
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10Syracuse University-3.33-0.70vs Predicted
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11St. John's College-4.22-0.77vs Predicted
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12University of Delaware-1.57-5.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.8U. S. Naval Academy1.780.5%1st Place
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3.48U. S. Naval Academy0.270.1%1st Place
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2.32St. Mary's College of Maryland1.280.3%1st Place
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5.32Washington College-0.800.0%1st Place
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5.38Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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7.57Catholic University of America-2.140.0%1st Place
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6.22Drexel University-1.470.0%1st Place
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7.96University of Maryland/Baltimore County-2.450.0%1st Place
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9.3Syracuse University-3.330.0%1st Place
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10.23St. John's College-4.220.0%1st Place
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6.43University of Delaware-1.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Trudell | 48.8% | 31.0% | 13.5% | 5.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Logan Hayes | 11.4% | 15.7% | 27.7% | 19.9% | 13.8% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Marynowski | 26.9% | 34.3% | 24.6% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Imogene Nuss | 3.6% | 4.6% | 8.6% | 16.5% | 21.8% | 16.8% | 13.2% | 10.1% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 3.7% | 4.7% | 9.0% | 16.7% | 18.1% | 16.9% | 15.2% | 9.4% | 5.2% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| John Anthony Caraig | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 10.3% | 14.0% | 20.0% | 20.6% | 14.2% | 3.9% |
| Charlotte Shaw | 2.2% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 9.5% | 14.4% | 16.9% | 17.5% | 15.5% | 10.2% | 4.4% | 0.2% |
| John TIS | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 17.8% | 22.8% | 19.1% | 6.3% |
| Finn Halstead | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 8.7% | 15.3% | 38.1% | 24.6% |
| August Bellanca | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 8.2% | 18.0% | 64.2% |
| Ethan Deutsch | 1.0% | 2.3% | 5.9% | 10.7% | 13.0% | 15.5% | 18.5% | 14.3% | 13.9% | 4.1% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.