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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.44+7.82vs Predicted
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2Yale University4.10+4.23vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College3.60+5.24vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.04+10.63vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+2.22vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42+2.84vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston3.95-0.27vs Predicted
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8University of Wisconsin3.36+1.39vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College3.49-0.59vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University3.07+0.36vs Predicted
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11Brown University3.23-1.36vs Predicted
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12University of South Florida3.49-3.07vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont2.74-1.40vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University3.30-4.45vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland3.30-5.72vs Predicted
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16Eckerd College2.78-4.41vs Predicted
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17Washington College2.29-3.38vs Predicted
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18Columbia University2.13-3.73vs Predicted
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19Cornell University2.48-6.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.82Georgetown University3.440.0%1st Place
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6.23Yale University4.100.1%1st Place
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8.24SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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14.63Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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7.22Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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8.84U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.1%1st Place
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6.73College of Charleston3.950.1%1st Place
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9.39University of Wisconsin3.360.1%1st Place
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8.41Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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10.36Roger Williams University3.070.1%1st Place
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9.64Brown University3.230.0%1st Place
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8.93University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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11.6University of Vermont2.740.0%1st Place
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9.55Old Dominion University3.300.1%1st Place
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9.28St. Mary's College of Maryland3.300.1%1st Place
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11.59Eckerd College2.780.0%1st Place
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13.62Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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14.27Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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12.65Cornell University2.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Gowell | 4.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| Morgan Kiss | 11.7% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Harry Scott | 7.9% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Alex Reynolds | 0.6% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 15.8% | 26.0% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Gary Herring | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Ben Spector | 9.1% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.4% |
| Scott Houck | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% |
| George Saunders | 5.1% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 2.2% |
| Tyler Rice | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.6% |
| Will Stocke | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Hunter Mumma | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 5.2% |
| Scott Hoffmann | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 1.3% |
| Jacob La Dow | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| Robert Savoie | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 5.3% |
| Mildred Conroy | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 18.2% |
| David Coplon | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 14.6% | 22.3% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 10.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.