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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California1.71+2.01vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26+6.69vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.91+2.23vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California0.90+0.47vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University0.50+1.10vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83+0.39vs Predicted
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7University of California at Irvine0.49-0.61vs Predicted
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8California State University Channel Islands-0.38+0.76vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California0.38-2.37vs Predicted
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10California Poly Maritime Academy-0.45-1.22vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University-0.62-1.59vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-0.58-3.24vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-0.70-3.26vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-2.19-1.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.01University of Southern California1.7128.3%1st Place
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8.69Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.262.8%1st Place
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5.23University of California at Santa Cruz0.9111.2%1st Place
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4.47University of Southern California0.9014.4%1st Place
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6.1Northeastern University0.508.8%1st Place
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6.39Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.837.4%1st Place
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6.39University of California at Irvine0.496.7%1st Place
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8.76California State University Channel Islands-0.382.9%1st Place
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6.63University of Southern California0.386.3%1st Place
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8.78California Poly Maritime Academy-0.453.0%1st Place
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9.41Arizona State University-0.622.4%1st Place
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8.76University of California at San Diego-0.583.1%1st Place
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9.74University of California at San Diego-0.701.8%1st Place
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12.64University of California at Davis-2.190.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hudson Mayfield | 28.3% | 22.8% | 15.5% | 12.2% | 8.9% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Florence Duff | 2.8% | 2.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 5.2% |
| Colin Olson | 11.2% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Morgana Manti | 14.4% | 14.4% | 14.5% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Carter Anderson | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Jack Kisling | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Arin Bekem | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 0.2% |
| Brandon Stadtherr | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 5.2% |
| Edward Ansart | 6.3% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| Christopher Shintani | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 4.5% |
| Gavin Hirz | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 14.4% | 14.5% | 7.5% |
| Sean Lipps | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 4.8% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 14.2% | 18.3% | 7.6% |
| Alexander Lohan | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 11.7% | 63.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.