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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+5.79vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston3.95+4.53vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.07+7.38vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida3.49+4.44vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University3.30+4.45vs Predicted
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6Washington College2.29+7.35vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42+1.75vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University3.44+0.88vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College3.49-0.81vs Predicted
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10University of Wisconsin3.36-1.14vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.30-1.80vs Predicted
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12Yale University3.23-2.03vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College3.60-5.32vs Predicted
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14Brown University3.23-4.35vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont2.74-3.44vs Predicted
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16Eckerd College2.78-4.61vs Predicted
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17Fordham University2.04-2.60vs Predicted
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18Columbia University2.13-3.88vs Predicted
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19Cornell University2.48-6.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.79Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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6.53College of Charleston3.950.1%1st Place
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10.38Roger Williams University3.070.0%1st Place
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8.44University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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9.45Old Dominion University3.300.0%1st Place
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13.35Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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8.75U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.1%1st Place
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8.88Georgetown University3.440.1%1st Place
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8.19Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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8.86University of Wisconsin3.360.1%1st Place
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9.2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.300.1%1st Place
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9.97Yale University3.230.0%1st Place
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7.68SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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9.65Brown University3.230.1%1st Place
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11.56University of Vermont2.740.0%1st Place
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11.39Eckerd College2.780.0%1st Place
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14.4Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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14.12Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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12.4Cornell University2.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Norfleet | 8.8% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Ben Spector | 11.2% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| George Saunders | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.4% |
| Will Stocke | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Scott Hoffmann | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Mildred Conroy | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 13.9% | 16.9% |
| Gary Herring | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Matthew Gowell | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Scott Houck | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% |
| Jacob La Dow | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| Rob Struckett | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 1.9% |
| Harry Scott | 8.1% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Tyler Rice | 5.4% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 1.7% |
| Hunter Mumma | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 7.0% |
| Robert Savoie | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 5.2% |
| Alex Reynolds | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 15.9% | 25.2% |
| David Coplon | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 10.8% | 13.4% | 21.3% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 9.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.