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📊 Prediction Accuracy
10.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+5.76vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.44+6.64vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston3.95+3.58vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida3.49+4.40vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College3.49+3.64vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.23+3.47vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.30+2.25vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University3.07+2.46vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University3.30+0.07vs Predicted
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10University of Wisconsin3.36-1.15vs Predicted
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11Washington College2.29+2.55vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42-2.98vs Predicted
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13Yale University3.23-3.77vs Predicted
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14Eckerd College2.78-2.37vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College3.60-7.14vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont2.74-4.46vs Predicted
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17Cornell University2.48-4.27vs Predicted
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18Fordham University2.04-3.51vs Predicted
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19Columbia University2.13-5.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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8.64Georgetown University3.440.1%1st Place
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6.58College of Charleston3.950.1%1st Place
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8.4University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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8.64Dartmouth College3.490.0%1st Place
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9.47Brown University3.230.1%1st Place
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9.25St. Mary's College of Maryland3.300.1%1st Place
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10.46Roger Williams University3.070.0%1st Place
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9.07Old Dominion University3.300.1%1st Place
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8.85University of Wisconsin3.360.1%1st Place
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13.55Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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9.02U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.1%1st Place
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9.23Yale University3.230.1%1st Place
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11.63Eckerd College2.780.0%1st Place
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7.86SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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11.54University of Vermont2.740.0%1st Place
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12.73Cornell University2.480.0%1st Place
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14.49Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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13.83Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Norfleet | 8.6% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Matthew Gowell | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Ben Spector | 10.9% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Will Stocke | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Scott Houck | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% |
| Tyler Rice | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 2.1% |
| Jacob La Dow | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| George Saunders | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% |
| Scott Hoffmann | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.4% |
| Mildred Conroy | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 14.5% | 15.3% |
| Gary Herring | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Rob Struckett | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.7% |
| Robert Savoie | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 5.7% |
| Harry Scott | 8.2% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Hunter Mumma | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 12.8% |
| Alex Reynolds | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 10.4% | 13.3% | 25.6% |
| David Coplon | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 15.0% | 18.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.