← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Dartmouth College3.49+7.45vs Predicted
-
2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42+6.80vs Predicted
-
3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+3.89vs Predicted
-
4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.30+5.22vs Predicted
-
5College of Charleston3.95+1.70vs Predicted
-
6Cornell University2.48+6.64vs Predicted
-
7Brown University3.23+2.58vs Predicted
-
8University of South Florida3.49+0.59vs Predicted
-
9Old Dominion University3.30+0.05vs Predicted
-
10Georgetown University3.44-1.46vs Predicted
-
11Roger Williams University3.07-0.80vs Predicted
-
12SUNY Maritime College3.60-3.77vs Predicted
-
13Yale University3.23-3.71vs Predicted
-
14University of Wisconsin3.36-4.93vs Predicted
-
15University of Vermont2.74-3.47vs Predicted
-
16Columbia University2.13-1.87vs Predicted
-
17Washington College2.29-3.49vs Predicted
-
18Eckerd College2.78-6.55vs Predicted
-
19Fordham University2.04-4.89vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.45Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
-
8.8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.1%1st Place
-
6.89Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
-
9.22St. Mary's College of Maryland3.300.1%1st Place
-
6.7College of Charleston3.950.1%1st Place
-
12.64Cornell University2.480.0%1st Place
-
9.58Brown University3.230.1%1st Place
-
8.59University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
-
9.05Old Dominion University3.300.1%1st Place
-
8.54Georgetown University3.440.1%1st Place
-
10.2Roger Williams University3.070.0%1st Place
-
8.23SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
-
9.29Yale University3.230.1%1st Place
-
9.07University of Wisconsin3.360.1%1st Place
-
11.53University of Vermont2.740.0%1st Place
-
14.13Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
-
13.51Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
-
11.45Eckerd College2.780.0%1st Place
-
14.11Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Houck | 5.3% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Gary Herring | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 10.4% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Jacob La Dow | 5.2% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% |
| Ben Spector | 8.8% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 3.5% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 13.4% |
| Tyler Rice | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.8% |
| Will Stocke | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Scott Hoffmann | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.4% |
| Matthew Gowell | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| George Saunders | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.9% |
| Harry Scott | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Rob Struckett | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.3% |
| Hunter Mumma | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 8.1% |
| David Coplon | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 21.7% |
| Mildred Conroy | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 15.8% | 16.2% |
| Robert Savoie | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% |
| Alex Reynolds | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 14.2% | 20.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.