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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tulane University2.45+10.49vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.39+5.53vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.12+5.70vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.64+2.22vs Predicted
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5University of Miami2.66+5.38vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.30+6.01vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.82+2.73vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.33-0.51vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.99-0.01vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.81+0.06vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island3.23-2.79vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.69-1.30vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University2.79-3.24vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76-4.32vs Predicted
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15Boston College2.53-4.01vs Predicted
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16College of Charleston3.10-7.43vs Predicted
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17Tufts University2.43-5.36vs Predicted
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18St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-9.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.49Tulane University2.450.0%1st Place
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7.53Stanford University3.390.1%1st Place
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8.7Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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6.22Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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10.38University of Miami2.660.0%1st Place
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12.01Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
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9.73Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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7.49Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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8.99U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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10.06Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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8.21University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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10.7Cornell University2.690.0%1st Place
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9.76Georgetown University2.790.0%1st Place
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9.68U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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10.99Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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8.57College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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11.64Tufts University2.430.0%1st Place
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8.86St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holthus | 3.8% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 10.9% | 12.6% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 6.2% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| Jack Egan | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 1.7% |
| Justin Callahan | 12.1% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Atlee Kohl | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.2% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 15.8% |
| William Michels | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% |
| Guthrie Braun | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.3% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.0% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.1% |
| Bridget Green | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.6% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% |
| Colman Schofield | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 4.4% |
| Michael Kirkman | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.3% |
| Noah Zittrer | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 2.6% |
| Ben Mueller | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 12.7% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.