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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.82+8.95vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.33+5.70vs Predicted
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3Tulane University2.45+8.59vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston3.10+4.47vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island3.23+2.98vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.99+3.05vs Predicted
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7University of Miami2.66+3.43vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.69+2.22vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.81+0.80vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University2.79+0.22vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.30+1.11vs Predicted
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12Stanford University3.39-4.32vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76-3.16vs Predicted
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14Boston College2.53-3.29vs Predicted
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15Harvard University3.64-8.77vs Predicted
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16Yale University3.12-7.44vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-7.81vs Predicted
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18Tufts University2.43-6.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.95Dartmouth College2.820.0%1st Place
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7.7Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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11.59Tulane University2.450.0%1st Place
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8.47College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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7.98University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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9.05U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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10.43University of Miami2.660.0%1st Place
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10.22Cornell University2.690.0%1st Place
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9.8Bowdoin College2.810.0%1st Place
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10.22Georgetown University2.790.1%1st Place
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12.11Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
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7.68Stanford University3.390.1%1st Place
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9.84U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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10.71Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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6.23Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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8.56Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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9.19St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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11.27Tufts University2.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Michels | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.3% |
| Guthrie Braun | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| Kelly Holthus | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 11.2% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.0% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.0% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.8% |
| Nathan Smith | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.8% |
| Atlee Kohl | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% |
| Bridget Green | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% |
| Thomas Hall | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 4.1% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 5.9% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 3.7% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 17.6% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 1.0% |
| Colman Schofield | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% |
| Michael Kirkman | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 9.5% |
| Justin Callahan | 11.2% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Jack Egan | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 3.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.4% |
| Ben Mueller | 3.9% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 10.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.