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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
5.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.64+5.55vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.79+8.18vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island3.23+5.19vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.69+6.19vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.45+6.24vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+4.05vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.30+5.00vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.53+2.93vs Predicted
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9Tufts University2.43+2.46vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.99-0.71vs Predicted
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11University of Miami2.66-0.38vs Predicted
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12Yale University3.12-3.18vs Predicted
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13Stanford University3.39-5.80vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-5.24vs Predicted
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15Brown University3.33-7.52vs Predicted
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16College of Charleston3.10-7.43vs Predicted
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17Bowdoin College2.81-7.09vs Predicted
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18Dartmouth College2.82-8.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.55Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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10.18Georgetown University2.790.0%1st Place
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8.19University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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10.19Cornell University2.690.0%1st Place
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11.24Tulane University2.450.0%1st Place
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10.05U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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12.0Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
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10.93Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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11.46Tufts University2.430.0%1st Place
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9.29U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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10.62University of Miami2.660.0%1st Place
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8.82Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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7.2Stanford University3.390.1%1st Place
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8.76St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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7.48Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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8.57College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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9.91Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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9.56Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 10.0% | 12.3% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.0% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% |
| Bridget Green | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% |
| Kelly Holthus | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 12.9% |
| Colman Schofield | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.1% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 14.9% |
| Michael Kirkman | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 10.1% |
| Ben Mueller | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 10.6% | 10.8% |
| Nathan Smith | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% |
| Atlee Kohl | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 8.5% |
| Jack Egan | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 9.4% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 2.6% |
| Guthrie Braun | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Noah Zittrer | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.5% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.2% |
| William Michels | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.